Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show a broad spread in expected overnight lows for Paris on May 21, with potential values ranging from near 7°C under persistent northerly flow and upper-level troughing to 17°C or warmer if a maritime ridge strengthens and advects milder Atlantic air. This uncertainty stems from evolving synoptic patterns over western Europe, where mid-May climatological averages hover around 9–10°C but recent cool anomalies have kept probabilities elevated for sub-8°C outcomes. Traders are closely monitoring the next model runs and any shifts in steering currents or cloud cover that could alter radiative cooling overnight, as these variables will determine whether the minimum falls into cooler or milder bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on May 21?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 21?
7°C or below 43.0%
17°C or higher 40%
12°C 21%
11°C 20%
NEW
NEW
May 21, 2026
7°C or below
43%
8°C
14%
9°C
20%
10°C
20%
11°C
20%
12°C
21%
13°C
20%
14°C
19%
15°C
15%
16°C
15%
17°C or higher
40%
7°C or below 43.0%
17°C or higher 40%
12°C 21%
11°C 20%
NEW
NEW
May 21, 2026
7°C or below
$122 Vol.
43%
8°C
$0 Vol.
14%
9°C
$0 Vol.
20%
10°C
$0 Vol.
20%
11°C
$0 Vol.
20%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$0 Vol.
20%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C
$0 Vol.
15%
16°C
$0 Vol.
15%
17°C or higher
$75 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show a broad spread in expected overnight lows for Paris on May 21, with potential values ranging from near 7°C under persistent northerly flow and upper-level troughing to 17°C or warmer if a maritime ridge strengthens and advects milder Atlantic air. This uncertainty stems from evolving synoptic patterns over western Europe, where mid-May climatological averages hover around 9–10°C but recent cool anomalies have kept probabilities elevated for sub-8°C outcomes. Traders are closely monitoring the next model runs and any shifts in steering currents or cloud cover that could alter radiative cooling overnight, as these variables will determine whether the minimum falls into cooler or milder bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$197End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show a broad spread in expected overnight lows for Paris on May 21, with potential values ranging from near 7°C under persistent northerly flow and upper-level troughing to 17°C or warmer if a maritime ridge strengthens and advects milder Atlantic air. This uncertainty stems from evolving synoptic patterns over western Europe, where mid-May climatological averages hover around 9–10°C but recent cool anomalies have kept probabilities elevated for sub-8°C outcomes. Traders are closely monitoring the next model runs and any shifts in steering currents or cloud cover that could alter radiative cooling overnight, as these variables will determine whether the minimum falls into cooler or milder bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$197End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show a broad spread in expected overnight lows for Paris on May 21, with potential values ranging from near 7°C under persistent northerly flow and upper-level troughing to 17°C or warmer if a maritime ridge strengthens and advects milder Atlantic air. This uncertainty stems from evolving synoptic patterns over western Europe, where mid-May climatological averages hover around 9–10°C but recent cool anomalies have kept probabilities elevated for sub-8°C outcomes. Traders are closely monitoring the next model runs and any shifts in steering currents or cloud cover that could alter radiative cooling overnight, as these variables will determine whether the minimum falls into cooler or milder bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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