Recent forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicates a stable warm Pacific maritime air mass over Tokyo on May 18, supporting an overnight minimum near 18°C with light winds and limited cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. Subtle model differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns create the tight spread among 17–19°C outcomes, as these factors determine whether temperatures dip slightly lower or stabilize around the historical mid-May average of 15–18°C. With resolution based on official JMA observations, traders weigh the latest ensemble runs and local urban heat-island effects against typical springtime conditions ahead of the Baiu front.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
18°C 59%
19°C 37%
17°C 24%
16°C 2.6%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
24%
18°C
41%
19°C
30%
20°C
3%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 59%
19°C 37%
17°C 24%
16°C 2.6%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
$275 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$399 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$424 Vol.
1%
16°C
$295 Vol.
3%
17°C
$415 Vol.
24%
18°C
$399 Vol.
41%
19°C
$315 Vol.
30%
20°C
$281 Vol.
3%
21°C
$3,781 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$683 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$2,395 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicates a stable warm Pacific maritime air mass over Tokyo on May 18, supporting an overnight minimum near 18°C with light winds and limited cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. Subtle model differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns create the tight spread among 17–19°C outcomes, as these factors determine whether temperatures dip slightly lower or stabilize around the historical mid-May average of 15–18°C. With resolution based on official JMA observations, traders weigh the latest ensemble runs and local urban heat-island effects against typical springtime conditions ahead of the Baiu front.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$9,580End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicates a stable warm Pacific maritime air mass over Tokyo on May 18, supporting an overnight minimum near 18°C with light winds and limited cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. Subtle model differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns create the tight spread among 17–19°C outcomes, as these factors determine whether temperatures dip slightly lower or stabilize around the historical mid-May average of 15–18°C. With resolution based on official JMA observations, traders weigh the latest ensemble runs and local urban heat-island effects against typical springtime conditions ahead of the Baiu front.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,580End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicates a stable warm Pacific maritime air mass over Tokyo on May 18, supporting an overnight minimum near 18°C with light winds and limited cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. Subtle model differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns create the tight spread among 17–19°C outcomes, as these factors determine whether temperatures dip slightly lower or stabilize around the historical mid-May average of 15–18°C. With resolution based on official JMA observations, traders weigh the latest ensemble runs and local urban heat-island effects against typical springtime conditions ahead of the Baiu front.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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