Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show mild overnight conditions over Tokyo for May 21, with limited radiative cooling under a dominant Pacific high-pressure system keeping minimum temperatures clustered near 16–18°C. These outcomes reflect typical mid-May climatology, where average lows range 14–18°C amid warming maritime air masses, though subtle variations in boundary-layer wind speeds, cloud cover, and urban heat retention create the tight spread among leading probabilities. Model divergence on moisture levels and any weak frontal influence adds uncertainty, while historical records confirm such values occur regularly without extreme cold advection this season. Updated guidance ahead of the date will likely clarify resolution criteria tied to official JMA station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 21?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 21?
17°C 16%
16°C 15%
18°C 14%
19°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 21, 2026
11°C or below
4%
12°C
3%
13°C
5%
14°C
5%
15°C
9%
16°C
15%
17°C
15%
18°C
14%
19°C
11%
20°C
5%
21°C or higher
4%
17°C 16%
16°C 15%
18°C 14%
19°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 21, 2026
11°C or below
$73 Vol.
4%
12°C
$267 Vol.
3%
13°C
$61 Vol.
5%
14°C
$6 Vol.
5%
15°C
$6 Vol.
9%
16°C
$0 Vol.
15%
17°C
$6 Vol.
15%
18°C
$0 Vol.
14%
19°C
$0 Vol.
11%
20°C
$0 Vol.
5%
21°C or higher
$72 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show mild overnight conditions over Tokyo for May 21, with limited radiative cooling under a dominant Pacific high-pressure system keeping minimum temperatures clustered near 16–18°C. These outcomes reflect typical mid-May climatology, where average lows range 14–18°C amid warming maritime air masses, though subtle variations in boundary-layer wind speeds, cloud cover, and urban heat retention create the tight spread among leading probabilities. Model divergence on moisture levels and any weak frontal influence adds uncertainty, while historical records confirm such values occur regularly without extreme cold advection this season. Updated guidance ahead of the date will likely clarify resolution criteria tied to official JMA station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$491End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show mild overnight conditions over Tokyo for May 21, with limited radiative cooling under a dominant Pacific high-pressure system keeping minimum temperatures clustered near 16–18°C. These outcomes reflect typical mid-May climatology, where average lows range 14–18°C amid warming maritime air masses, though subtle variations in boundary-layer wind speeds, cloud cover, and urban heat retention create the tight spread among leading probabilities. Model divergence on moisture levels and any weak frontal influence adds uncertainty, while historical records confirm such values occur regularly without extreme cold advection this season. Updated guidance ahead of the date will likely clarify resolution criteria tied to official JMA station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$491End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show mild overnight conditions over Tokyo for May 21, with limited radiative cooling under a dominant Pacific high-pressure system keeping minimum temperatures clustered near 16–18°C. These outcomes reflect typical mid-May climatology, where average lows range 14–18°C amid warming maritime air masses, though subtle variations in boundary-layer wind speeds, cloud cover, and urban heat retention create the tight spread among leading probabilities. Model divergence on moisture levels and any weak frontal influence adds uncertainty, while historical records confirm such values occur regularly without extreme cold advection this season. Updated guidance ahead of the date will likely clarify resolution criteria tied to official JMA station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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