Trader consensus implies an 84% probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the virus's primarily zoonotic transmission via rodent excreta and saliva, with no history of sustained human-to-human spread except limited clusters from Andes virus in South America. The recent MV Hondius cruise ship cluster—reported by WHO on May 4, 2026, with two lab-confirmed Andes hantavirus cases among seven illnesses (three deaths) aboard the vessel off Cabo Verde—has heightened attention but remains contained through evacuations, isolation, and environmental controls, per WHO and ECDC low-risk assessments. Globally, cases number thousands annually (e.g., U.S. 890 total since 1993 per CDC), far below pandemic thresholds; upcoming sequencing and contact tracing will clarify dynamics, but epidemiological baselines favor no escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
$104,793 Vol.
$104,793 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$104,793 Vol.
$104,793 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies an 84% probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the virus's primarily zoonotic transmission via rodent excreta and saliva, with no history of sustained human-to-human spread except limited clusters from Andes virus in South America. The recent MV Hondius cruise ship cluster—reported by WHO on May 4, 2026, with two lab-confirmed Andes hantavirus cases among seven illnesses (three deaths) aboard the vessel off Cabo Verde—has heightened attention but remains contained through evacuations, isolation, and environmental controls, per WHO and ECDC low-risk assessments. Globally, cases number thousands annually (e.g., U.S. 890 total since 1993 per CDC), far below pandemic thresholds; upcoming sequencing and contact tracing will clarify dynamics, but epidemiological baselines favor no escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$104,793End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies an 84% probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the virus's primarily zoonotic transmission via rodent excreta and saliva, with no history of sustained human-to-human spread except limited clusters from Andes virus in South America. The recent MV Hondius cruise ship cluster—reported by WHO on May 4, 2026, with two lab-confirmed Andes hantavirus cases among seven illnesses (three deaths) aboard the vessel off Cabo Verde—has heightened attention but remains contained through evacuations, isolation, and environmental controls, per WHO and ECDC low-risk assessments. Globally, cases number thousands annually (e.g., U.S. 890 total since 1993 per CDC), far below pandemic thresholds; upcoming sequencing and contact tracing will clarify dynamics, but epidemiological baselines favor no escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$105,760End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 84% probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the virus's primarily zoonotic transmission via rodent excreta and saliva, with no history of sustained human-to-human spread except limited clusters from Andes virus in South America. The recent MV Hondius cruise ship cluster—reported by WHO on May 4, 2026, with two lab-confirmed Andes hantavirus cases among seven illnesses (three deaths) aboard the vessel off Cabo Verde—has heightened attention but remains contained through evacuations, isolation, and environmental controls, per WHO and ECDC low-risk assessments. Globally, cases number thousands annually (e.g., U.S. 890 total since 1993 per CDC), far below pandemic thresholds; upcoming sequencing and contact tracing will clarify dynamics, but epidemiological baselines favor no escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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