Latest ensemble forecasts from global models place Istanbul’s daytime maximum near 22°C on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly flow across the Marmara region. This aligns with mid-May climatology from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, where long-term station averages for the date fall between 20–23°C. Minimal cloud cover and modest warm-air advection from the Anatolian interior reinforce the tight consensus around this outcome, while the moderating influence of the Bosphorus and potential sea-breeze development keep any upward deviation unlikely. Final resolution will hinge on the official NOAA observation at Istanbul Airport, with only significant model errors in boundary-layer mixing or unexpected frontal passage able to shift the recorded high outside the 22°C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 17?
22°C 99.5%
23°C <1%
20°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
$55,954 Vol.
$55,954 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
100%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
22°C 99.5%
23°C <1%
20°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
$55,954 Vol.
$55,954 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$552 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,271 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$13,506 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,184 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$5,010 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$4,642 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,672 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,210 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$6,373 Vol.
100%
23°C
$5,161 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$10,869 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from global models place Istanbul’s daytime maximum near 22°C on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly flow across the Marmara region. This aligns with mid-May climatology from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, where long-term station averages for the date fall between 20–23°C. Minimal cloud cover and modest warm-air advection from the Anatolian interior reinforce the tight consensus around this outcome, while the moderating influence of the Bosphorus and potential sea-breeze development keep any upward deviation unlikely. Final resolution will hinge on the official NOAA observation at Istanbul Airport, with only significant model errors in boundary-layer mixing or unexpected frontal passage able to shift the recorded high outside the 22°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$55,954End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from global models place Istanbul’s daytime maximum near 22°C on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly flow across the Marmara region. This aligns with mid-May climatology from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, where long-term station averages for the date fall between 20–23°C. Minimal cloud cover and modest warm-air advection from the Anatolian interior reinforce the tight consensus around this outcome, while the moderating influence of the Bosphorus and potential sea-breeze development keep any upward deviation unlikely. Final resolution will hinge on the official NOAA observation at Istanbul Airport, with only significant model errors in boundary-layer mixing or unexpected frontal passage able to shift the recorded high outside the 22°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$55,954End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from global models place Istanbul’s daytime maximum near 22°C on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly flow across the Marmara region. This aligns with mid-May climatology from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, where long-term station averages for the date fall between 20–23°C. Minimal cloud cover and modest warm-air advection from the Anatolian interior reinforce the tight consensus around this outcome, while the moderating influence of the Bosphorus and potential sea-breeze development keep any upward deviation unlikely. Final resolution will hinge on the official NOAA observation at Istanbul Airport, with only significant model errors in boundary-layer mixing or unexpected frontal passage able to shift the recorded high outside the 22°C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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