Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows moderate activity along major plate boundaries during May 11–17 2026, with multiple M5.0+ events concentrated in the Pacific Ring of Fire regions including Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, and offshore Chile. This pattern aligns with baseline rates where M5.5+ earthquakes typically average 6–9 worldwide per week, driven by steady tectonic stress release rather than aftershock swarms or unusual clustering. No significant magnitude 6.0+ events have emerged to push totals higher, keeping trader-implied odds favoring exactly 7 outcomes at 59.7 percent while allowing for variability from updated catalog revisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
7 59.7%
8 35.2%
9 10.8%
>9 2.5%
$129,827 Vol.
$129,827 Vol.
≤3
1%
4
1%
5
1%
6
<1%
7
60%
8
23%
9
11%
>9
2%
7 59.7%
8 35.2%
9 10.8%
>9 2.5%
$129,827 Vol.
$129,827 Vol.
≤3
1%
4
1%
5
1%
6
<1%
7
60%
8
23%
9
11%
>9
2%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows moderate activity along major plate boundaries during May 11–17 2026, with multiple M5.0+ events concentrated in the Pacific Ring of Fire regions including Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, and offshore Chile. This pattern aligns with baseline rates where M5.5+ earthquakes typically average 6–9 worldwide per week, driven by steady tectonic stress release rather than aftershock swarms or unusual clustering. No significant magnitude 6.0+ events have emerged to push totals higher, keeping trader-implied odds favoring exactly 7 outcomes at 59.7 percent while allowing for variability from updated catalog revisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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