Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in Tokyo's May 16 lowest temperature, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 15–18°C (25–26%) due to divergent ensemble forecasts from JMA, GFS, and ECMWF models three days out. Mid-May historical lows at Tokyo's official station average 16°C, but spring synoptic variability—driven by transient cold fronts from the north, southerly warm advection, overnight cloud cover, and light winds—creates 3–5°C spreads in model outputs, preventing any outcome from dominating. A slight early warming trend noted in JMA's spring 2026 outlook adds upward pressure on higher bins, though radiative cooling potential keeps cooler scenarios viable. Watch daily JMA updates and new 12-hourly model runs for shifts ahead of resolution based on verified minimum at Haneda or central Tokyo stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
16°C 24%
15°C 24%
13°C or below 16.1%
17°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
16%
14°C
5%
15°C
28%
16°C
24%
17°C
15%
18°C
9%
19°C
3%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
16°C 24%
15°C 24%
13°C or below 16.1%
17°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
$251 Vol.
16%
14°C
$10 Vol.
5%
15°C
$13 Vol.
28%
16°C
$0 Vol.
24%
17°C
$10 Vol.
15%
18°C
$0 Vol.
9%
19°C
$5 Vol.
3%
20°C
$416 Vol.
1%
21°C
$150 Vol.
1%
22°C
$297 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$335 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in Tokyo's May 16 lowest temperature, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 15–18°C (25–26%) due to divergent ensemble forecasts from JMA, GFS, and ECMWF models three days out. Mid-May historical lows at Tokyo's official station average 16°C, but spring synoptic variability—driven by transient cold fronts from the north, southerly warm advection, overnight cloud cover, and light winds—creates 3–5°C spreads in model outputs, preventing any outcome from dominating. A slight early warming trend noted in JMA's spring 2026 outlook adds upward pressure on higher bins, though radiative cooling potential keeps cooler scenarios viable. Watch daily JMA updates and new 12-hourly model runs for shifts ahead of resolution based on verified minimum at Haneda or central Tokyo stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,487End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in Tokyo's May 16 lowest temperature, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 15–18°C (25–26%) due to divergent ensemble forecasts from JMA, GFS, and ECMWF models three days out. Mid-May historical lows at Tokyo's official station average 16°C, but spring synoptic variability—driven by transient cold fronts from the north, southerly warm advection, overnight cloud cover, and light winds—creates 3–5°C spreads in model outputs, preventing any outcome from dominating. A slight early warming trend noted in JMA's spring 2026 outlook adds upward pressure on higher bins, though radiative cooling potential keeps cooler scenarios viable. Watch daily JMA updates and new 12-hourly model runs for shifts ahead of resolution based on verified minimum at Haneda or central Tokyo stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,487End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in Tokyo's May 16 lowest temperature, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 15–18°C (25–26%) due to divergent ensemble forecasts from JMA, GFS, and ECMWF models three days out. Mid-May historical lows at Tokyo's official station average 16°C, but spring synoptic variability—driven by transient cold fronts from the north, southerly warm advection, overnight cloud cover, and light winds—creates 3–5°C spreads in model outputs, preventing any outcome from dominating. A slight early warming trend noted in JMA's spring 2026 outlook adds upward pressure on higher bins, though radiative cooling potential keeps cooler scenarios viable. Watch daily JMA updates and new 12-hourly model runs for shifts ahead of resolution based on verified minimum at Haneda or central Tokyo stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions