Japan Meteorological Agency's May 13 forecast indicates a 15°C low for Tokyo on May 15 under partly cloudy skies with light winds and 30% precipitation chance, driving trader consensus toward 15°C (28%) and 16°C (27%) as leading outcomes. This tight clustering reflects ensemble model spreads—JMA, GFS equivalents, and others—varying by 1°C due to uncertainty in overnight cloud cover, which modulates radiative cooling in the shallow boundary layer, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering extremes. Recent observations show May 13 highs near 27°C dropping to 17°C overnight into May 14, signaling mild spring conditions without incoming cold fronts. JMA's May 14 update and new model runs could tip the balance as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?
15°C 32%
14°C 26%
13°C 15.3%
16°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
15%
14°C
26%
15°C
32%
16°C
20%
17°C
9%
18°C
3%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
15°C 32%
14°C 26%
13°C 15.3%
16°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
12°C or below
$213 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$86 Vol.
15%
14°C
$35 Vol.
26%
15°C
$77 Vol.
32%
16°C
$128 Vol.
20%
17°C
$98 Vol.
9%
18°C
$261 Vol.
3%
19°C
$200 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$331 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$139 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency's May 13 forecast indicates a 15°C low for Tokyo on May 15 under partly cloudy skies with light winds and 30% precipitation chance, driving trader consensus toward 15°C (28%) and 16°C (27%) as leading outcomes. This tight clustering reflects ensemble model spreads—JMA, GFS equivalents, and others—varying by 1°C due to uncertainty in overnight cloud cover, which modulates radiative cooling in the shallow boundary layer, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering extremes. Recent observations show May 13 highs near 27°C dropping to 17°C overnight into May 14, signaling mild spring conditions without incoming cold fronts. JMA's May 14 update and new model runs could tip the balance as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,600End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency's May 13 forecast indicates a 15°C low for Tokyo on May 15 under partly cloudy skies with light winds and 30% precipitation chance, driving trader consensus toward 15°C (28%) and 16°C (27%) as leading outcomes. This tight clustering reflects ensemble model spreads—JMA, GFS equivalents, and others—varying by 1°C due to uncertainty in overnight cloud cover, which modulates radiative cooling in the shallow boundary layer, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering extremes. Recent observations show May 13 highs near 27°C dropping to 17°C overnight into May 14, signaling mild spring conditions without incoming cold fronts. JMA's May 14 update and new model runs could tip the balance as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,600End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency's May 13 forecast indicates a 15°C low for Tokyo on May 15 under partly cloudy skies with light winds and 30% precipitation chance, driving trader consensus toward 15°C (28%) and 16°C (27%) as leading outcomes. This tight clustering reflects ensemble model spreads—JMA, GFS equivalents, and others—varying by 1°C due to uncertainty in overnight cloud cover, which modulates radiative cooling in the shallow boundary layer, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering extremes. Recent observations show May 13 highs near 27°C dropping to 17°C overnight into May 14, signaling mild spring conditions without incoming cold fronts. JMA's May 14 update and new model runs could tip the balance as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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