Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Hong Kong's highest temperature reaching 31°C or higher on May 13, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) official daily bulletin reporting a maximum air temperature of 31.6°C at its headquarters station amid sunny periods and low humidity (67-88%). This measurement, finalized in the early morning press release on May 14, aligns with above-normal May conditions under a ridge of high pressure, where seasonal forecasts predicted normal to above-normal temperatures. Realistic challenges are negligible—only an unprecedented data revision from sensor malfunction or audit could alter it, as HKO observations are highly reliable with historical accuracy in urban heat tracking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 13?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 13?
31°C or higher 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$351,388 Vol.
$351,388 Vol.
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
100%
31°C or higher 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$351,388 Vol.
$351,388 Vol.
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
100%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Hong Kong's highest temperature reaching 31°C or higher on May 13, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) official daily bulletin reporting a maximum air temperature of 31.6°C at its headquarters station amid sunny periods and low humidity (67-88%). This measurement, finalized in the early morning press release on May 14, aligns with above-normal May conditions under a ridge of high pressure, where seasonal forecasts predicted normal to above-normal temperatures. Realistic challenges are negligible—only an unprecedented data revision from sensor malfunction or audit could alter it, as HKO observations are highly reliable with historical accuracy in urban heat tracking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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