Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecasts indicate Karachi's highest temperature on May 15 will likely reach 35-36°C, aligning with trader consensus assigning 46.5% implied probability to 36°C or higher, 27% to exactly 35°C, and 24.5% to 34°C. This positioning follows the abatement of an intense early-May heatwave that peaked at 44.1°C on May 5—the city's hottest day in eight years—after which temperatures dropped to 34°C on May 12 amid increased humidity and sea breezes. PMD's weekly outlook for May 12-18 projects near-normal to 2°C above-normal conditions in coastal Sindh, with climatological May highs averaging 34-35°C. Ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF supports this range, though short-term uncertainty persists from variable winds and urban heat effects; monitor PMD's daily updates for refinements ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Karachi on May 15?
Highest temperature in Karachi on May 15?
36°C or higher 52%
35°C 26%
34°C 18%
33°C 9%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
2%
33°C
9%
34°C
18%
35°C
26%
36°C or higher
52%
36°C or higher 52%
35°C 26%
34°C 18%
33°C 9%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
26°C or below
$1,013 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$963 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$825 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$847 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$859 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$400 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$206 Vol.
2%
33°C
$376 Vol.
9%
34°C
$305 Vol.
18%
35°C
$670 Vol.
26%
36°C or higher
$403 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecasts indicate Karachi's highest temperature on May 15 will likely reach 35-36°C, aligning with trader consensus assigning 46.5% implied probability to 36°C or higher, 27% to exactly 35°C, and 24.5% to 34°C. This positioning follows the abatement of an intense early-May heatwave that peaked at 44.1°C on May 5—the city's hottest day in eight years—after which temperatures dropped to 34°C on May 12 amid increased humidity and sea breezes. PMD's weekly outlook for May 12-18 projects near-normal to 2°C above-normal conditions in coastal Sindh, with climatological May highs averaging 34-35°C. Ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF supports this range, though short-term uncertainty persists from variable winds and urban heat effects; monitor PMD's daily updates for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Volume
$6,868End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 1:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecasts indicate Karachi's highest temperature on May 15 will likely reach 35-36°C, aligning with trader consensus assigning 46.5% implied probability to 36°C or higher, 27% to exactly 35°C, and 24.5% to 34°C. This positioning follows the abatement of an intense early-May heatwave that peaked at 44.1°C on May 5—the city's hottest day in eight years—after which temperatures dropped to 34°C on May 12 amid increased humidity and sea breezes. PMD's weekly outlook for May 12-18 projects near-normal to 2°C above-normal conditions in coastal Sindh, with climatological May highs averaging 34-35°C. Ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF supports this range, though short-term uncertainty persists from variable winds and urban heat effects; monitor PMD's daily updates for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,868End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 1:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecasts indicate Karachi's highest temperature on May 15 will likely reach 35-36°C, aligning with trader consensus assigning 46.5% implied probability to 36°C or higher, 27% to exactly 35°C, and 24.5% to 34°C. This positioning follows the abatement of an intense early-May heatwave that peaked at 44.1°C on May 5—the city's hottest day in eight years—after which temperatures dropped to 34°C on May 12 amid increased humidity and sea breezes. PMD's weekly outlook for May 12-18 projects near-normal to 2°C above-normal conditions in coastal Sindh, with climatological May highs averaging 34-35°C. Ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF supports this range, though short-term uncertainty persists from variable winds and urban heat effects; monitor PMD's daily updates for refinements ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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