Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Italian meteorological services, pricing a high of 15°C at 30% implied probability amid tight clustering around 14–16°C due to a persistent cool air mass over northern Italy. A late-April cold front ushered northerly winds and showers, suppressing temperatures well below the May climatological average of 22°C; recent model runs show daytime highs varying by 1–2°C based on cloud cover evolution and boundary layer mixing. Official guidance indicates light rain possible on May 15, potentially capping peaks at 14°C, while partial clearing could push toward 16°C. New 12Z ECMWF and GFS updates expected today may refine this uncertainty before resolution via Milan Linate Airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on May 15?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 15?
14°C 33%
15°C 23%
16°C 21%
17°C 15%
NEW
$14,840 Vol.
NEW
$14,840 Vol.
May 15, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
10%
14°C
33%
15°C
23%
16°C
21%
17°C
15%
18°C
6%
19°C or higher
2%
14°C 33%
15°C 23%
16°C 21%
17°C 15%
NEW
$14,840 Vol.
NEW
$14,840 Vol.
May 15, 2026
9°C or below
$780 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,766 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,421 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,290 Vol.
2%
13°C
$1,150 Vol.
10%
14°C
$1,691 Vol.
33%
15°C
$1,051 Vol.
23%
16°C
$830 Vol.
21%
17°C
$1,026 Vol.
15%
18°C
$1,930 Vol.
6%
19°C or higher
$1,915 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Italian meteorological services, pricing a high of 15°C at 30% implied probability amid tight clustering around 14–16°C due to a persistent cool air mass over northern Italy. A late-April cold front ushered northerly winds and showers, suppressing temperatures well below the May climatological average of 22°C; recent model runs show daytime highs varying by 1–2°C based on cloud cover evolution and boundary layer mixing. Official guidance indicates light rain possible on May 15, potentially capping peaks at 14°C, while partial clearing could push toward 16°C. New 12Z ECMWF and GFS updates expected today may refine this uncertainty before resolution via Milan Linate Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$14,840End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Italian meteorological services, pricing a high of 15°C at 30% implied probability amid tight clustering around 14–16°C due to a persistent cool air mass over northern Italy. A late-April cold front ushered northerly winds and showers, suppressing temperatures well below the May climatological average of 22°C; recent model runs show daytime highs varying by 1–2°C based on cloud cover evolution and boundary layer mixing. Official guidance indicates light rain possible on May 15, potentially capping peaks at 14°C, while partial clearing could push toward 16°C. New 12Z ECMWF and GFS updates expected today may refine this uncertainty before resolution via Milan Linate Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$14,840End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Italian meteorological services, pricing a high of 15°C at 30% implied probability amid tight clustering around 14–16°C due to a persistent cool air mass over northern Italy. A late-April cold front ushered northerly winds and showers, suppressing temperatures well below the May climatological average of 22°C; recent model runs show daytime highs varying by 1–2°C based on cloud cover evolution and boundary layer mixing. Official guidance indicates light rain possible on May 15, potentially capping peaks at 14°C, while partial clearing could push toward 16°C. New 12Z ECMWF and GFS updates expected today may refine this uncertainty before resolution via Milan Linate Airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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