Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84% implied probability to a high of 32°C or higher in Panama City on May 15, reflecting the latest global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which project peak temperatures of 32–33°C amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering clear skies, light winds, and low humidity. This positioning stems from the past 48 hours' model runs showing minimal convective activity—reducing cloud cover risks—and alignment with May climatology, where daily highs average 31°C but frequently exceed 32°C during dry-season transitions. Recent observations confirm stable atmospheric conditions with no tropical disturbances nearby. Updated guidance expected from international models overnight could refine these odds, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains due to potential isolated thunderstorms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on May 15?
Highest temperature in Panama City on May 15?
32°C or higher 84%
31°C 14%
30°C 3.5%
29°C <1%
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
14%
32°C or higher
84%
32°C or higher 84%
31°C 14%
30°C 3.5%
29°C <1%
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
14%
32°C or higher
84%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 1:06 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84% implied probability to a high of 32°C or higher in Panama City on May 15, reflecting the latest global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which project peak temperatures of 32–33°C amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering clear skies, light winds, and low humidity. This positioning stems from the past 48 hours' model runs showing minimal convective activity—reducing cloud cover risks—and alignment with May climatology, where daily highs average 31°C but frequently exceed 32°C during dry-season transitions. Recent observations confirm stable atmospheric conditions with no tropical disturbances nearby. Updated guidance expected from international models overnight could refine these odds, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains due to potential isolated thunderstorms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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