Korea Meteorological Administration's short-term forecast, updated at 08:50 on May 14, projects a Seoul daily high of 31°C under mostly clear skies, light easterly winds, and just 10% afternoon precipitation risk, propelling the 27°C or higher outcome to a leading 47.4% implied probability among traders wagering real capital. Morning observations around 18°C align with potential for strong solar heating to 30°C peaks by afternoon, corroborated by AccuWeather's 33°C estimate, amid a high-pressure ridge fostering above-normal May warmth—well beyond the 23°C climatological average. Yet, with probabilities clustered at 25°C (21%) and 26°C (23.5%), traders weigh forecast uncertainty from possible cloud intrusions or model divergences; KMA's 5 PM update and hourly data will sharpen resolution as peak heating unfolds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on May 14?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 14?
27°C or higher 51.4%
26°C 21%
25°C 18%
24°C 7.6%
NEW
$128,856 Vol.
NEW
$128,856 Vol.
May 14, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
6%
24°C
8%
25°C
18%
26°C
21%
27°C or higher
51%
27°C or higher 51.4%
26°C 21%
25°C 18%
24°C 7.6%
NEW
$128,856 Vol.
NEW
$128,856 Vol.
May 14, 2026
17°C or below
$13,142 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$6,710 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$6,646 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$7,970 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$14,064 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$23,574 Vol.
2%
23°C
$16,918 Vol.
6%
24°C
$14,030 Vol.
8%
25°C
$5,441 Vol.
18%
26°C
$5,000 Vol.
21%
27°C or higher
$16,032 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration's short-term forecast, updated at 08:50 on May 14, projects a Seoul daily high of 31°C under mostly clear skies, light easterly winds, and just 10% afternoon precipitation risk, propelling the 27°C or higher outcome to a leading 47.4% implied probability among traders wagering real capital. Morning observations around 18°C align with potential for strong solar heating to 30°C peaks by afternoon, corroborated by AccuWeather's 33°C estimate, amid a high-pressure ridge fostering above-normal May warmth—well beyond the 23°C climatological average. Yet, with probabilities clustered at 25°C (21%) and 26°C (23.5%), traders weigh forecast uncertainty from possible cloud intrusions or model divergences; KMA's 5 PM update and hourly data will sharpen resolution as peak heating unfolds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$128,856End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration's short-term forecast, updated at 08:50 on May 14, projects a Seoul daily high of 31°C under mostly clear skies, light easterly winds, and just 10% afternoon precipitation risk, propelling the 27°C or higher outcome to a leading 47.4% implied probability among traders wagering real capital. Morning observations around 18°C align with potential for strong solar heating to 30°C peaks by afternoon, corroborated by AccuWeather's 33°C estimate, amid a high-pressure ridge fostering above-normal May warmth—well beyond the 23°C climatological average. Yet, with probabilities clustered at 25°C (21%) and 26°C (23.5%), traders weigh forecast uncertainty from possible cloud intrusions or model divergences; KMA's 5 PM update and hourly data will sharpen resolution as peak heating unfolds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$128,856End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Korea Meteorological Administration's short-term forecast, updated at 08:50 on May 14, projects a Seoul daily high of 31°C under mostly clear skies, light easterly winds, and just 10% afternoon precipitation risk, propelling the 27°C or higher outcome to a leading 47.4% implied probability among traders wagering real capital. Morning observations around 18°C align with potential for strong solar heating to 30°C peaks by afternoon, corroborated by AccuWeather's 33°C estimate, amid a high-pressure ridge fostering above-normal May warmth—well beyond the 23°C climatological average. Yet, with probabilities clustered at 25°C (21%) and 26°C (23.5%), traders weigh forecast uncertainty from possible cloud intrusions or model divergences; KMA's 5 PM update and hourly data will sharpen resolution as peak heating unfolds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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