Trader consensus tilts slightly toward "No" at 53.5% implied probability for a confirmed hantavirus case in the US by May 15, reflecting zero laboratory-confirmed cases year-to-date per CDC surveillance data through early May 2026, against a historical baseline of 20–30 annual US incidents—mostly Sin Nombre virus in the Southwest during spring cleanup season. The close contest stems from scientific uncertainties around the ongoing Andes hantavirus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship, reported May 2, where US passengers are under monitoring in states including Texas, New Jersey, and Arizona; incubation periods of 1–8 weeks raise risks of imported detections. Key tipping points include CDC's weekly notifiable diseases report (week ending May 16), test results from repatriated travelers quarantined in Nebraska, and any baseline HPS reports from routine rodent exposure surveillance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
$86,747 Vol.
$86,747 Vol.
May 15, 2026
$86,747 Vol.
$86,747 Vol.
May 15, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Hantavirus in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Trader consensus tilts slightly toward "No" at 53.5% implied probability for a confirmed hantavirus case in the US by May 15, reflecting zero laboratory-confirmed cases year-to-date per CDC surveillance data through early May 2026, against a historical baseline of 20–30 annual US incidents—mostly Sin Nombre virus in the Southwest during spring cleanup season. The close contest stems from scientific uncertainties around the ongoing Andes hantavirus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship, reported May 2, where US passengers are under monitoring in states including Texas, New Jersey, and Arizona; incubation periods of 1–8 weeks raise risks of imported detections. Key tipping points include CDC's weekly notifiable diseases report (week ending May 16), test results from repatriated travelers quarantined in Nebraska, and any baseline HPS reports from routine rodent exposure surveillance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Hantavirus in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: May 7, 2026, 12:06 PM ET
Volume
$86,747End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Hantavirus in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Trader consensus tilts slightly toward "No" at 53.5% implied probability for a confirmed hantavirus case in the US by May 15, reflecting zero laboratory-confirmed cases year-to-date per CDC surveillance data through early May 2026, against a historical baseline of 20–30 annual US incidents—mostly Sin Nombre virus in the Southwest during spring cleanup season. The close contest stems from scientific uncertainties around the ongoing Andes hantavirus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship, reported May 2, where US passengers are under monitoring in states including Texas, New Jersey, and Arizona; incubation periods of 1–8 weeks raise risks of imported detections. Key tipping points include CDC's weekly notifiable diseases report (week ending May 16), test results from repatriated travelers quarantined in Nebraska, and any baseline HPS reports from routine rodent exposure surveillance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Hantavirus in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$86,747End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus tilts slightly toward "No" at 53.5% implied probability for a confirmed hantavirus case in the US by May 15, reflecting zero laboratory-confirmed cases year-to-date per CDC surveillance data through early May 2026, against a historical baseline of 20–30 annual US incidents—mostly Sin Nombre virus in the Southwest during spring cleanup season. The close contest stems from scientific uncertainties around the ongoing Andes hantavirus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship, reported May 2, where US passengers are under monitoring in states including Texas, New Jersey, and Arizona; incubation periods of 1–8 weeks raise risks of imported detections. Key tipping points include CDC's weekly notifiable diseases report (week ending May 16), test results from repatriated travelers quarantined in Nebraska, and any baseline HPS reports from routine rodent exposure surveillance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions