Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for London's lowest temperature on May 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 6–11°C (24–25.5% each) due to divergent ensemble outputs from UK Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS on overnight cloud cover and light showers. Updated Met Office guidance as of May 13 shows minimums of 8–9°C at Heathrow and central London sites, driven by a cloudier low-pressure pattern limiting radiative cooling, gusty 20 mph winds mixing the boundary layer, and 30–50% rain chances trapping heat—conditions warmer than recent lows of 5–6°C midweek. Below-5°C outcomes lag at 13.5% amid below-average May norms (historical ~8°C), but clearer spells could dip temps lower. Watch UK Met Office evening update and ECMWF 12z run for shifts ahead of resolution using official Heathrow observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on May 17?
Lowest temperature in London on May 17?
10°C 26%
9°C 18%
11°C 16%
12°C or higher 12%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
2°C or below
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
2%
5°C
1%
6°C
5%
7°C
5%
8°C
5%
9°C
18%
10°C
26%
11°C
16%
12°C or higher
12%
10°C 26%
9°C 18%
11°C 16%
12°C or higher 12%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
2°C or below
$58 Vol.
1%
3°C
$226 Vol.
1%
4°C
$36 Vol.
2%
5°C
$36 Vol.
1%
6°C
$108 Vol.
5%
7°C
$71 Vol.
5%
8°C
$40 Vol.
5%
9°C
$16 Vol.
18%
10°C
$16 Vol.
26%
11°C
$16 Vol.
16%
12°C or higher
$53 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for London's lowest temperature on May 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 6–11°C (24–25.5% each) due to divergent ensemble outputs from UK Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS on overnight cloud cover and light showers. Updated Met Office guidance as of May 13 shows minimums of 8–9°C at Heathrow and central London sites, driven by a cloudier low-pressure pattern limiting radiative cooling, gusty 20 mph winds mixing the boundary layer, and 30–50% rain chances trapping heat—conditions warmer than recent lows of 5–6°C midweek. Below-5°C outcomes lag at 13.5% amid below-average May norms (historical ~8°C), but clearer spells could dip temps lower. Watch UK Met Office evening update and ECMWF 12z run for shifts ahead of resolution using official Heathrow observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$673End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for London's lowest temperature on May 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 6–11°C (24–25.5% each) due to divergent ensemble outputs from UK Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS on overnight cloud cover and light showers. Updated Met Office guidance as of May 13 shows minimums of 8–9°C at Heathrow and central London sites, driven by a cloudier low-pressure pattern limiting radiative cooling, gusty 20 mph winds mixing the boundary layer, and 30–50% rain chances trapping heat—conditions warmer than recent lows of 5–6°C midweek. Below-5°C outcomes lag at 13.5% amid below-average May norms (historical ~8°C), but clearer spells could dip temps lower. Watch UK Met Office evening update and ECMWF 12z run for shifts ahead of resolution using official Heathrow observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$673End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for London's lowest temperature on May 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 6–11°C (24–25.5% each) due to divergent ensemble outputs from UK Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS on overnight cloud cover and light showers. Updated Met Office guidance as of May 13 shows minimums of 8–9°C at Heathrow and central London sites, driven by a cloudier low-pressure pattern limiting radiative cooling, gusty 20 mph winds mixing the boundary layer, and 30–50% rain chances trapping heat—conditions warmer than recent lows of 5–6°C midweek. Below-5°C outcomes lag at 13.5% amid below-average May norms (historical ~8°C), but clearer spells could dip temps lower. Watch UK Met Office evening update and ECMWF 12z run for shifts ahead of resolution using official Heathrow observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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