Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF/GFS model consensus project Madrid's highest temperature on May 15 clustering around 16–17°C, driving the tight trader sentiment split (33.5% at 17°C, 31.5% at 16°C) amid a cool northerly airflow and persistent cloud cover following recent unsettled patterns across Iberia. This below-climatological-average outlook (typical mid-May highs near 23°C) stems from upper-level troughing suppressing daytime heating and limiting boundary layer mixing, with ensemble spread reflecting uncertainty in afternoon clearing skies or minor warm advection. Official measurements at Madrid-Barajas will resolve the market; watch for AEMET's next update and 12Z ECMWF run for potential shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 15?
17°C 34%
16°C 32%
18°C 19%
15°C 13%
NEW
$10,984 Vol.
NEW
$10,984 Vol.
May 15, 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
4%
15°C
13%
16°C
32%
17°C
34%
18°C
19%
19°C
9%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
1%
17°C 34%
16°C 32%
18°C 19%
15°C 13%
NEW
$10,984 Vol.
NEW
$10,984 Vol.
May 15, 2026
13°C or below
$1,323 Vol.
1%
14°C
$708 Vol.
4%
15°C
$848 Vol.
13%
16°C
$1,030 Vol.
32%
17°C
$543 Vol.
34%
18°C
$716 Vol.
19%
19°C
$929 Vol.
9%
20°C
$867 Vol.
3%
21°C
$702 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,334 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$1,985 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF/GFS model consensus project Madrid's highest temperature on May 15 clustering around 16–17°C, driving the tight trader sentiment split (33.5% at 17°C, 31.5% at 16°C) amid a cool northerly airflow and persistent cloud cover following recent unsettled patterns across Iberia. This below-climatological-average outlook (typical mid-May highs near 23°C) stems from upper-level troughing suppressing daytime heating and limiting boundary layer mixing, with ensemble spread reflecting uncertainty in afternoon clearing skies or minor warm advection. Official measurements at Madrid-Barajas will resolve the market; watch for AEMET's next update and 12Z ECMWF run for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Volume
$10,984End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF/GFS model consensus project Madrid's highest temperature on May 15 clustering around 16–17°C, driving the tight trader sentiment split (33.5% at 17°C, 31.5% at 16°C) amid a cool northerly airflow and persistent cloud cover following recent unsettled patterns across Iberia. This below-climatological-average outlook (typical mid-May highs near 23°C) stems from upper-level troughing suppressing daytime heating and limiting boundary layer mixing, with ensemble spread reflecting uncertainty in afternoon clearing skies or minor warm advection. Official measurements at Madrid-Barajas will resolve the market; watch for AEMET's next update and 12Z ECMWF run for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,984End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF/GFS model consensus project Madrid's highest temperature on May 15 clustering around 16–17°C, driving the tight trader sentiment split (33.5% at 17°C, 31.5% at 16°C) amid a cool northerly airflow and persistent cloud cover following recent unsettled patterns across Iberia. This below-climatological-average outlook (typical mid-May highs near 23°C) stems from upper-level troughing suppressing daytime heating and limiting boundary layer mixing, with ensemble spread reflecting uncertainty in afternoon clearing skies or minor warm advection. Official measurements at Madrid-Barajas will resolve the market; watch for AEMET's next update and 12Z ECMWF run for potential shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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