Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 15 reaching 66°F or higher, closely tracking the latest National Weather Service forecast guidance projecting a daytime high near 66-68°F under partly sunny skies with west winds 8-15 mph. This positioning reflects persistent onshore flow from the Pacific, delivering cool marine air that tempers warming potential despite ample sunshine, consistent with May climatology where average highs hover around 67°F and "May Gray" marine layer effects often cap extremes. Ensemble forecast models from NOAA show strong agreement on this moderate range, with minimal signals for hotter ridging or cooler stratus overdevelopment that could shift odds toward 64-65°F (19%). Updated model runs expected this afternoon may refine these trader-aligned probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on May 15?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 15?
66°F or higher 72%
64-65°F 21%
62-63°F 3.8%
60-61°F 1.6%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
47°F or below
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
4%
64-65°F
21%
66°F or higher
72%
66°F or higher 72%
64-65°F 21%
62-63°F 3.8%
60-61°F 1.6%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
47°F or below
$982 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$611 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$553 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$636 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$1,347 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$924 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$386 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$286 Vol.
2%
62-63°F
$723 Vol.
4%
64-65°F
$444 Vol.
21%
66°F or higher
$350 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 15 reaching 66°F or higher, closely tracking the latest National Weather Service forecast guidance projecting a daytime high near 66-68°F under partly sunny skies with west winds 8-15 mph. This positioning reflects persistent onshore flow from the Pacific, delivering cool marine air that tempers warming potential despite ample sunshine, consistent with May climatology where average highs hover around 67°F and "May Gray" marine layer effects often cap extremes. Ensemble forecast models from NOAA show strong agreement on this moderate range, with minimal signals for hotter ridging or cooler stratus overdevelopment that could shift odds toward 64-65°F (19%). Updated model runs expected this afternoon may refine these trader-aligned probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$7,234End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 15 reaching 66°F or higher, closely tracking the latest National Weather Service forecast guidance projecting a daytime high near 66-68°F under partly sunny skies with west winds 8-15 mph. This positioning reflects persistent onshore flow from the Pacific, delivering cool marine air that tempers warming potential despite ample sunshine, consistent with May climatology where average highs hover around 67°F and "May Gray" marine layer effects often cap extremes. Ensemble forecast models from NOAA show strong agreement on this moderate range, with minimal signals for hotter ridging or cooler stratus overdevelopment that could shift odds toward 64-65°F (19%). Updated model runs expected this afternoon may refine these trader-aligned probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,234End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 15 reaching 66°F or higher, closely tracking the latest National Weather Service forecast guidance projecting a daytime high near 66-68°F under partly sunny skies with west winds 8-15 mph. This positioning reflects persistent onshore flow from the Pacific, delivering cool marine air that tempers warming potential despite ample sunshine, consistent with May climatology where average highs hover around 67°F and "May Gray" marine layer effects often cap extremes. Ensemble forecast models from NOAA show strong agreement on this moderate range, with minimal signals for hotter ridging or cooler stratus overdevelopment that could shift odds toward 64-65°F (19%). Updated model runs expected this afternoon may refine these trader-aligned probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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