Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 29°C high in Hong Kong today at 56% implied probability, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecasts showing cloudy skies and scattered showers capping peak temperatures amid a trough of low pressure near southern China. Current morning observations at the Observatory station report air temperatures building toward 28–29°C under high humidity (around 80%), consistent with May's climatological average high of 29°C and the 2026 seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures. Model consensus from multi-ensemble runs indicates limited sunshine intervals, reducing odds for 30°C (26%) or higher (5%), while persistent cloud cover supports 28°C (13%) as a close alternative. Updated hourly readings through afternoon will refine the outcome, as resolution hinges on the Observatory's official maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?
29°C 59%
30°C 28%
28°C 8%
31°C or higher 5.4%
NEW
$92,123 Vol.
NEW
$92,123 Vol.
May 14, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
8%
29°C
59%
30°C
28%
31°C or higher
5%
29°C 59%
30°C 28%
28°C 8%
31°C or higher 5.4%
NEW
$92,123 Vol.
NEW
$92,123 Vol.
May 14, 2026
21°C or below
$1,346 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,370 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,870 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$4,274 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$5,131 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$29,696 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$24,290 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$5,665 Vol.
8%
29°C
$4,949 Vol.
59%
30°C
$7,295 Vol.
28%
31°C or higher
$6,298 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 29°C high in Hong Kong today at 56% implied probability, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecasts showing cloudy skies and scattered showers capping peak temperatures amid a trough of low pressure near southern China. Current morning observations at the Observatory station report air temperatures building toward 28–29°C under high humidity (around 80%), consistent with May's climatological average high of 29°C and the 2026 seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures. Model consensus from multi-ensemble runs indicates limited sunshine intervals, reducing odds for 30°C (26%) or higher (5%), while persistent cloud cover supports 28°C (13%) as a close alternative. Updated hourly readings through afternoon will refine the outcome, as resolution hinges on the Observatory's official maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Volume
$92,123End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 29°C high in Hong Kong today at 56% implied probability, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecasts showing cloudy skies and scattered showers capping peak temperatures amid a trough of low pressure near southern China. Current morning observations at the Observatory station report air temperatures building toward 28–29°C under high humidity (around 80%), consistent with May's climatological average high of 29°C and the 2026 seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures. Model consensus from multi-ensemble runs indicates limited sunshine intervals, reducing odds for 30°C (26%) or higher (5%), while persistent cloud cover supports 28°C (13%) as a close alternative. Updated hourly readings through afternoon will refine the outcome, as resolution hinges on the Observatory's official maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$92,123End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 29°C high in Hong Kong today at 56% implied probability, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecasts showing cloudy skies and scattered showers capping peak temperatures amid a trough of low pressure near southern China. Current morning observations at the Observatory station report air temperatures building toward 28–29°C under high humidity (around 80%), consistent with May's climatological average high of 29°C and the 2026 seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures. Model consensus from multi-ensemble runs indicates limited sunshine intervals, reducing odds for 30°C (26%) or higher (5%), while persistent cloud cover supports 28°C (13%) as a close alternative. Updated hourly readings through afternoon will refine the outcome, as resolution hinges on the Observatory's official maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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