Trader consensus has locked in 70-71°F at 100% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature on May 13, driven by the National Weather Service's official daily climatological report (CLINYC) from the Central Park station, which recorded the peak in that narrow range amid mostly cloudy skies, breezy southerly winds, and developing afternoon showers that capped warming. This aligns with pre-event NOAA forecast model consensus (GFS, NAM) projecting highs near 70°F under a weak frontal influence, matching mid-May climatological normals of 71°F while below recent warmer trends. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data revision from quality control audits could shift resolution, though NWS observations are authoritative and stable for such markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 13?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 13?
70-71°F 100.0%
72-73°F <1%
74°F or higher <1%
$156,553 Vol.
$156,553 Vol.
70-71°F
100%
72-73°F
<1%
74°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 100.0%
72-73°F <1%
74°F or higher <1%
$156,553 Vol.
$156,553 Vol.
70-71°F
100%
72-73°F
<1%
74°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 12:34 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus has locked in 70-71°F at 100% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature on May 13, driven by the National Weather Service's official daily climatological report (CLINYC) from the Central Park station, which recorded the peak in that narrow range amid mostly cloudy skies, breezy southerly winds, and developing afternoon showers that capped warming. This aligns with pre-event NOAA forecast model consensus (GFS, NAM) projecting highs near 70°F under a weak frontal influence, matching mid-May climatological normals of 71°F while below recent warmer trends. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data revision from quality control audits could shift resolution, though NWS observations are authoritative and stable for such markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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