Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts indicate a low temperature of 16°C for Tokyo on May 14, aligning with the market's leading 36.5% implied probability and reflecting trader consensus on mid-May climatological norms, where minimums typically range 14–17°C based on historical data from central Tokyo stations. Recent hourly model outputs from JMA and international ensembles like ECMWF show overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds, favoring radiative cooling to around 16°C, though urban heat island effects and variable cloud cover introduce uncertainty captured in nearby 15°C (23.5%) and 18°C (23.0%) odds. No major synoptic shifts in the past 48 hours; traders should monitor real-time observations from JMA stations for potential deviations before end-of-day resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 14?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 14?
16°C 21%
18°C 20%
17°C 4%
14°C 3.8%
$10,240 Vol.
$10,240 Vol.
May 14, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
4%
15°C
39%
16°C
33%
17°C
4%
18°C
20%
19°C
<1%
16°C 21%
18°C 20%
17°C 4%
14°C 3.8%
$10,240 Vol.
$10,240 Vol.
May 14, 2026
13°C or below
$1,475 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$466 Vol.
4%
15°C
$348 Vol.
39%
16°C
$416 Vol.
33%
17°C
$534 Vol.
4%
18°C
$799 Vol.
20%
19°C
$2,411 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts indicate a low temperature of 16°C for Tokyo on May 14, aligning with the market's leading 36.5% implied probability and reflecting trader consensus on mid-May climatological norms, where minimums typically range 14–17°C based on historical data from central Tokyo stations. Recent hourly model outputs from JMA and international ensembles like ECMWF show overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds, favoring radiative cooling to around 16°C, though urban heat island effects and variable cloud cover introduce uncertainty captured in nearby 15°C (23.5%) and 18°C (23.0%) odds. No major synoptic shifts in the past 48 hours; traders should monitor real-time observations from JMA stations for potential deviations before end-of-day resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$10,240End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts indicate a low temperature of 16°C for Tokyo on May 14, aligning with the market's leading 36.5% implied probability and reflecting trader consensus on mid-May climatological norms, where minimums typically range 14–17°C based on historical data from central Tokyo stations. Recent hourly model outputs from JMA and international ensembles like ECMWF show overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds, favoring radiative cooling to around 16°C, though urban heat island effects and variable cloud cover introduce uncertainty captured in nearby 15°C (23.5%) and 18°C (23.0%) odds. No major synoptic shifts in the past 48 hours; traders should monitor real-time observations from JMA stations for potential deviations before end-of-day resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,240End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts indicate a low temperature of 16°C for Tokyo on May 14, aligning with the market's leading 36.5% implied probability and reflecting trader consensus on mid-May climatological norms, where minimums typically range 14–17°C based on historical data from central Tokyo stations. Recent hourly model outputs from JMA and international ensembles like ECMWF show overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds, favoring radiative cooling to around 16°C, though urban heat island effects and variable cloud cover introduce uncertainty captured in nearby 15°C (23.5%) and 18°C (23.0%) odds. No major synoptic shifts in the past 48 hours; traders should monitor real-time observations from JMA stations for potential deviations before end-of-day resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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