Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 19°C minimum temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 16, with 34.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting lows in the 18–21°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, light southerly winds, and partial cloud cover. Recent overnight readings around Shanghai have hovered near 19–20°C amid typical May mildness, with no major fronts or precipitation events in the past 48 hours to alter cooling patterns. Key variables driving uncertainty include cloudiness timing—thicker cover traps heat for 20–21°C lows—radiative cooling potential under clears skies toward 17–18°C, and urban heat island amplification. New model runs every 6–12 hours and China Meteorological Administration updates will sharpen guidance before resolution via official station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 16?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 16?
19°C 38%
18°C 12%
17°C 12%
20°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
5%
17°C
12%
18°C
12%
19°C
31%
20°C
10%
21°C
5%
22°C
5%
23°C
3%
24°C or higher
1%
19°C 38%
18°C 12%
17°C 12%
20°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
$2,865 Vol.
1%
15°C
$2,439 Vol.
1%
16°C
$717 Vol.
5%
17°C
$1,011 Vol.
12%
18°C
$73 Vol.
12%
19°C
$57 Vol.
31%
20°C
$26 Vol.
10%
21°C
$20 Vol.
5%
22°C
$167 Vol.
5%
23°C
$132 Vol.
3%
24°C or higher
$1,408 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 19°C minimum temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 16, with 34.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting lows in the 18–21°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, light southerly winds, and partial cloud cover. Recent overnight readings around Shanghai have hovered near 19–20°C amid typical May mildness, with no major fronts or precipitation events in the past 48 hours to alter cooling patterns. Key variables driving uncertainty include cloudiness timing—thicker cover traps heat for 20–21°C lows—radiative cooling potential under clears skies toward 17–18°C, and urban heat island amplification. New model runs every 6–12 hours and China Meteorological Administration updates will sharpen guidance before resolution via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$8,916End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 19°C minimum temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 16, with 34.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting lows in the 18–21°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, light southerly winds, and partial cloud cover. Recent overnight readings around Shanghai have hovered near 19–20°C amid typical May mildness, with no major fronts or precipitation events in the past 48 hours to alter cooling patterns. Key variables driving uncertainty include cloudiness timing—thicker cover traps heat for 20–21°C lows—radiative cooling potential under clears skies toward 17–18°C, and urban heat island amplification. New model runs every 6–12 hours and China Meteorological Administration updates will sharpen guidance before resolution via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,916End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDTrader consensus on Polymarket favors a 19°C minimum temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 16, with 34.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting lows in the 18–21°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, light southerly winds, and partial cloud cover. Recent overnight readings around Shanghai have hovered near 19–20°C amid typical May mildness, with no major fronts or precipitation events in the past 48 hours to alter cooling patterns. Key variables driving uncertainty include cloudiness timing—thicker cover traps heat for 20–21°C lows—radiative cooling potential under clears skies toward 17–18°C, and urban heat island amplification. New model runs every 6–12 hours and China Meteorological Administration updates will sharpen guidance before resolution via official station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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