Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 14, driven by real-time observations from the China Meteorological Administration and METAR reports at station ZSPD showing overnight minima holding steady at 20°C amid persistent overcast skies and southerly winds at 5-10 km/h. Thick cloud cover has suppressed nocturnal radiative cooling—trapping longwave radiation and maintaining moderate 50-55% humidity—while the urban heat island effect adds 1-2°C to baseline lows. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models align closely, projecting no further drops through evening amid 40% shower chances. Mid-May climatology supports this, with historical Pudong lows averaging 18-20°C. A challenge would require improbable sudden clearing for enhanced cooling to 19°C, with hourly updates from CMA expected to confirm by midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14?
20°C 93%
19°C 3.5%
18°C 3.5%
17°C <1%
$12,893 Vol.
$12,893 Vol.
May 14, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
3%
19°C
4%
20°C
93%
20°C 93%
19°C 3.5%
18°C 3.5%
17°C <1%
$12,893 Vol.
$12,893 Vol.
May 14, 2026
15°C or below
$214 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$104 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$669 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$864 Vol.
3%
19°C
$352 Vol.
4%
20°C
$434 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 14, driven by real-time observations from the China Meteorological Administration and METAR reports at station ZSPD showing overnight minima holding steady at 20°C amid persistent overcast skies and southerly winds at 5-10 km/h. Thick cloud cover has suppressed nocturnal radiative cooling—trapping longwave radiation and maintaining moderate 50-55% humidity—while the urban heat island effect adds 1-2°C to baseline lows. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models align closely, projecting no further drops through evening amid 40% shower chances. Mid-May climatology supports this, with historical Pudong lows averaging 18-20°C. A challenge would require improbable sudden clearing for enhanced cooling to 19°C, with hourly updates from CMA expected to confirm by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volume
$12,893End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 14, driven by real-time observations from the China Meteorological Administration and METAR reports at station ZSPD showing overnight minima holding steady at 20°C amid persistent overcast skies and southerly winds at 5-10 km/h. Thick cloud cover has suppressed nocturnal radiative cooling—trapping longwave radiation and maintaining moderate 50-55% humidity—while the urban heat island effect adds 1-2°C to baseline lows. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models align closely, projecting no further drops through evening amid 40% shower chances. Mid-May climatology supports this, with historical Pudong lows averaging 18-20°C. A challenge would require improbable sudden clearing for enhanced cooling to 19°C, with hourly updates from CMA expected to confirm by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,893End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 14, driven by real-time observations from the China Meteorological Administration and METAR reports at station ZSPD showing overnight minima holding steady at 20°C amid persistent overcast skies and southerly winds at 5-10 km/h. Thick cloud cover has suppressed nocturnal radiative cooling—trapping longwave radiation and maintaining moderate 50-55% humidity—while the urban heat island effect adds 1-2°C to baseline lows. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models align closely, projecting no further drops through evening amid 40% shower chances. Mid-May climatology supports this, with historical Pudong lows averaging 18-20°C. A challenge would require improbable sudden clearing for enhanced cooling to 19°C, with hourly updates from CMA expected to confirm by midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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