Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 15, with forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) pointing to a 20°C minimum under cloudy conditions and southerly winds below 12 km/h, while global models like those from CustomWeather and Weather Underground imply 19°C amid a slight cooling trend from recent highs near 31°C. This fragmentation across 15–23°C outcomes stems from ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs, where variable low-level cloud cover—forecasted as overcast through May 14—could suppress radiative cooling to keep lows above 20°C, or clearer skies allow drops toward 17–18°C, modulated by urban heat island effects and East China Sea sea breezes. Watch CMA updates and new model cycles over the next 48 hours for shifts ahead of resolution based on official station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
19°C 31%
18°C 29%
20°C 14%
17°C 5.1%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
5%
18°C
29%
19°C
31%
20°C
14%
21°C
3%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 31%
18°C 29%
20°C 14%
17°C 5.1%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
14°C or below
$129 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$128 Vol.
1%
16°C
$0 Vol.
3%
17°C
$0 Vol.
5%
18°C
$23 Vol.
29%
19°C
$43 Vol.
31%
20°C
$17 Vol.
14%
21°C
$0 Vol.
3%
22°C
$26 Vol.
1%
23°C
$44 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$22 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 15, with forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) pointing to a 20°C minimum under cloudy conditions and southerly winds below 12 km/h, while global models like those from CustomWeather and Weather Underground imply 19°C amid a slight cooling trend from recent highs near 31°C. This fragmentation across 15–23°C outcomes stems from ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs, where variable low-level cloud cover—forecasted as overcast through May 14—could suppress radiative cooling to keep lows above 20°C, or clearer skies allow drops toward 17–18°C, modulated by urban heat island effects and East China Sea sea breezes. Watch CMA updates and new model cycles over the next 48 hours for shifts ahead of resolution based on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$431End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 15, with forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) pointing to a 20°C minimum under cloudy conditions and southerly winds below 12 km/h, while global models like those from CustomWeather and Weather Underground imply 19°C amid a slight cooling trend from recent highs near 31°C. This fragmentation across 15–23°C outcomes stems from ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs, where variable low-level cloud cover—forecasted as overcast through May 14—could suppress radiative cooling to keep lows above 20°C, or clearer skies allow drops toward 17–18°C, modulated by urban heat island effects and East China Sea sea breezes. Watch CMA updates and new model cycles over the next 48 hours for shifts ahead of resolution based on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$431End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 15, with forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) pointing to a 20°C minimum under cloudy conditions and southerly winds below 12 km/h, while global models like those from CustomWeather and Weather Underground imply 19°C amid a slight cooling trend from recent highs near 31°C. This fragmentation across 15–23°C outcomes stems from ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs, where variable low-level cloud cover—forecasted as overcast through May 14—could suppress radiative cooling to keep lows above 20°C, or clearer skies allow drops toward 17–18°C, modulated by urban heat island effects and East China Sea sea breezes. Watch CMA updates and new model cycles over the next 48 hours for shifts ahead of resolution based on official station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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