Current numerical weather prediction ensembles place Shanghai’s June 12 overnight minimum most likely between 21 °C and 23 °C, consistent with the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities. Increasing cloud cover and scattered light rain tied to the early East Asian summer monsoon (plum rain) are limiting radiational cooling, keeping lows several degrees above the clearer-sky values seen earlier in the month. Southerly flow is also advecting slightly warmer, more humid air, while historical climatology for the first half of June shows average lows near 20–21 °C. Short-term model updates from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will determine whether any further moderation or brief clearing shifts the distribution within the narrow 20–24 °C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on June 12?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on June 12?
21°C 21%
22°C 21%
23°C 19%
17°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 12, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
8%
18°C
8%
19°C
5%
20°C
8%
21°C
21%
22°C
21%
23°C
19%
24°C
7%
25°C
3%
26°C or higher
1%
21°C 21%
22°C 21%
23°C 19%
17°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 12, 2026
16°C or below
$20 Vol.
1%
17°C
$40 Vol.
8%
18°C
$0 Vol.
8%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$10 Vol.
8%
21°C
$0 Vol.
21%
22°C
$0 Vol.
21%
23°C
$0 Vol.
19%
24°C
$10 Vol.
7%
25°C
$40 Vol.
3%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction ensembles place Shanghai’s June 12 overnight minimum most likely between 21 °C and 23 °C, consistent with the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities. Increasing cloud cover and scattered light rain tied to the early East Asian summer monsoon (plum rain) are limiting radiational cooling, keeping lows several degrees above the clearer-sky values seen earlier in the month. Southerly flow is also advecting slightly warmer, more humid air, while historical climatology for the first half of June shows average lows near 20–21 °C. Short-term model updates from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will determine whether any further moderation or brief clearing shifts the distribution within the narrow 20–24 °C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$120End Date
Jun 12, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction ensembles place Shanghai’s June 12 overnight minimum most likely between 21 °C and 23 °C, consistent with the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities. Increasing cloud cover and scattered light rain tied to the early East Asian summer monsoon (plum rain) are limiting radiational cooling, keeping lows several degrees above the clearer-sky values seen earlier in the month. Southerly flow is also advecting slightly warmer, more humid air, while historical climatology for the first half of June shows average lows near 20–21 °C. Short-term model updates from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will determine whether any further moderation or brief clearing shifts the distribution within the narrow 20–24 °C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$120End Date
Jun 12, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction ensembles place Shanghai’s June 12 overnight minimum most likely between 21 °C and 23 °C, consistent with the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities. Increasing cloud cover and scattered light rain tied to the early East Asian summer monsoon (plum rain) are limiting radiational cooling, keeping lows several degrees above the clearer-sky values seen earlier in the month. Southerly flow is also advecting slightly warmer, more humid air, while historical climatology for the first half of June shows average lows near 20–21 °C. Short-term model updates from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will determine whether any further moderation or brief clearing shifts the distribution within the narrow 20–24 °C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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