Recent forecasts from models including those used by AEMET and ECMWF indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, with light northerly to easterly flow and minimal cloud cover supporting afternoon highs near 33–35°C in central Spain. Madrid’s continental climate typically sees June maxima averaging 28–30°C, but current guidance shows modest warming from southerly advection and strong insolation, positioning 34°C as the mode while leaving room for one-degree model spread around resolution at the Retiro station. No significant frontal systems or Atlantic intrusions are expected before June 12, keeping probabilities concentrated in the upper-30s Celsius range, though final model runs and observational adjustments in the next 48 hours could shift the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on June 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 12?
34°C 49%
35°C 27%
33°C 19%
36°C 7.8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 12, 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
3%
33°C
19%
34°C
49%
35°C
27%
36°C
8%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
34°C 49%
35°C 27%
33°C 19%
36°C 7.8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 12, 2026
30°C or below
$36 Vol.
1%
31°C
$51 Vol.
1%
32°C
$75 Vol.
3%
33°C
$139 Vol.
19%
34°C
$147 Vol.
49%
35°C
$45 Vol.
27%
36°C
$32 Vol.
8%
37°C
$6 Vol.
1%
38°C
$74 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$6 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$6 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including those used by AEMET and ECMWF indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, with light northerly to easterly flow and minimal cloud cover supporting afternoon highs near 33–35°C in central Spain. Madrid’s continental climate typically sees June maxima averaging 28–30°C, but current guidance shows modest warming from southerly advection and strong insolation, positioning 34°C as the mode while leaving room for one-degree model spread around resolution at the Retiro station. No significant frontal systems or Atlantic intrusions are expected before June 12, keeping probabilities concentrated in the upper-30s Celsius range, though final model runs and observational adjustments in the next 48 hours could shift the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Volume
$603End Date
Jun 12, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 1:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including those used by AEMET and ECMWF indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, with light northerly to easterly flow and minimal cloud cover supporting afternoon highs near 33–35°C in central Spain. Madrid’s continental climate typically sees June maxima averaging 28–30°C, but current guidance shows modest warming from southerly advection and strong insolation, positioning 34°C as the mode while leaving room for one-degree model spread around resolution at the Retiro station. No significant frontal systems or Atlantic intrusions are expected before June 12, keeping probabilities concentrated in the upper-30s Celsius range, though final model runs and observational adjustments in the next 48 hours could shift the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$603End Date
Jun 12, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 1:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including those used by AEMET and ECMWF indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, with light northerly to easterly flow and minimal cloud cover supporting afternoon highs near 33–35°C in central Spain. Madrid’s continental climate typically sees June maxima averaging 28–30°C, but current guidance shows modest warming from southerly advection and strong insolation, positioning 34°C as the mode while leaving room for one-degree model spread around resolution at the Retiro station. No significant frontal systems or Atlantic intrusions are expected before June 12, keeping probabilities concentrated in the upper-30s Celsius range, though final model runs and observational adjustments in the next 48 hours could shift the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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