Recent ensemble forecasts from European meteorological models indicate a highest temperature of 18–19°C in Amsterdam on June 12, driven by moderate Atlantic westerly flow, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers that cap daytime heating. These conditions align with early-June climatology, when average highs reach approximately 19°C, positioning the 19°C and 18°C outcomes as market leaders at 38.5% and 26.5% implied probability. Minor model spread around frontal timing and local insolation introduces uncertainty, keeping lower and higher thresholds at single-digit odds. Updated high-resolution runs and official guidance expected within the next 48 hours will further refine the temperature range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on June 12?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on June 12?
19°C 39%
18°C 27%
20°C 18%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Jun 12, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
4%
17°C
5%
18°C
27%
19°C
39%
20°C
18%
21°C
5%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 39%
18°C 27%
20°C 18%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Jun 12, 2026
13°C or below
$316 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$331 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,464 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$20 Vol.
4%
17°C
$38 Vol.
5%
18°C
$15 Vol.
27%
19°C
$25 Vol.
39%
20°C
$68 Vol.
18%
21°C
$26 Vol.
5%
22°C
$62 Vol.
1%
23°C or higher
$25 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European meteorological models indicate a highest temperature of 18–19°C in Amsterdam on June 12, driven by moderate Atlantic westerly flow, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers that cap daytime heating. These conditions align with early-June climatology, when average highs reach approximately 19°C, positioning the 19°C and 18°C outcomes as market leaders at 38.5% and 26.5% implied probability. Minor model spread around frontal timing and local insolation introduces uncertainty, keeping lower and higher thresholds at single-digit odds. Updated high-resolution runs and official guidance expected within the next 48 hours will further refine the temperature range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Volume
$3,390End Date
Jun 12, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 1:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European meteorological models indicate a highest temperature of 18–19°C in Amsterdam on June 12, driven by moderate Atlantic westerly flow, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers that cap daytime heating. These conditions align with early-June climatology, when average highs reach approximately 19°C, positioning the 19°C and 18°C outcomes as market leaders at 38.5% and 26.5% implied probability. Minor model spread around frontal timing and local insolation introduces uncertainty, keeping lower and higher thresholds at single-digit odds. Updated high-resolution runs and official guidance expected within the next 48 hours will further refine the temperature range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,390End Date
Jun 12, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 1:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from European meteorological models indicate a highest temperature of 18–19°C in Amsterdam on June 12, driven by moderate Atlantic westerly flow, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers that cap daytime heating. These conditions align with early-June climatology, when average highs reach approximately 19°C, positioning the 19°C and 18°C outcomes as market leaders at 38.5% and 26.5% implied probability. Minor model spread around frontal timing and local insolation introduces uncertainty, keeping lower and higher thresholds at single-digit odds. Updated high-resolution runs and official guidance expected within the next 48 hours will further refine the temperature range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions