Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the Korea Meteorological Administration show Seoul's June 10 daytime maximum clustering near 23–24 °C, with ensemble spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover. This narrow range aligns with early-June climatology, when mean highs rise from roughly 22 °C in late May toward 26 °C by mid-month under strengthening southerly flow ahead of the East Asian monsoon. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these two outcomes because recent model runs have converged on similar surface temperatures once diurnal heating and light winds are accounted for, while probabilities for 25 °C or above remain low absent stronger insolation or downslope warming. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will likely refine the final maximum before market resolution.