Recent forecast models from the UK Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a mild southwesterly Atlantic flow over London on May 19, limiting overnight radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 11–13°C. Persistent cloud cover and moderate winds should prevent strong surface inversions that would otherwise drop readings several degrees lower, consistent with the warmer-than-average spring pattern observed across northwest Europe this season. Historical Met Office data show mid-May overnight lows averaging 7–9°C, yet current steering patterns and elevated sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic favor reduced nocturnal cooling. Traders appear to weigh these dynamics against possible model shifts in the final 48-hour updates, as small changes in cloud timing or wind direction can alter the exact minimum by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on May 19?
Lowest temperature in London on May 19?
12°C 28%
11°C 26%
13°C 14%
10°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
5°C or below
1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
6%
10°C
11%
11°C
26%
12°C
28%
13°C
21%
14°C
6%
15°C or higher
1%
12°C 28%
11°C 26%
13°C 14%
10°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
5°C or below
$15 Vol.
1%
6°C
$107 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$68 Vol.
1%
8°C
$25 Vol.
1%
9°C
$70 Vol.
6%
10°C
$49 Vol.
11%
11°C
$9 Vol.
26%
12°C
$8 Vol.
28%
13°C
$5 Vol.
21%
14°C
$25 Vol.
6%
15°C or higher
$43 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from the UK Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a mild southwesterly Atlantic flow over London on May 19, limiting overnight radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 11–13°C. Persistent cloud cover and moderate winds should prevent strong surface inversions that would otherwise drop readings several degrees lower, consistent with the warmer-than-average spring pattern observed across northwest Europe this season. Historical Met Office data show mid-May overnight lows averaging 7–9°C, yet current steering patterns and elevated sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic favor reduced nocturnal cooling. Traders appear to weigh these dynamics against possible model shifts in the final 48-hour updates, as small changes in cloud timing or wind direction can alter the exact minimum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$424End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from the UK Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a mild southwesterly Atlantic flow over London on May 19, limiting overnight radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 11–13°C. Persistent cloud cover and moderate winds should prevent strong surface inversions that would otherwise drop readings several degrees lower, consistent with the warmer-than-average spring pattern observed across northwest Europe this season. Historical Met Office data show mid-May overnight lows averaging 7–9°C, yet current steering patterns and elevated sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic favor reduced nocturnal cooling. Traders appear to weigh these dynamics against possible model shifts in the final 48-hour updates, as small changes in cloud timing or wind direction can alter the exact minimum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$424End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCRecent forecast models from the UK Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a mild southwesterly Atlantic flow over London on May 19, limiting overnight radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 11–13°C. Persistent cloud cover and moderate winds should prevent strong surface inversions that would otherwise drop readings several degrees lower, consistent with the warmer-than-average spring pattern observed across northwest Europe this season. Historical Met Office data show mid-May overnight lows averaging 7–9°C, yet current steering patterns and elevated sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic favor reduced nocturnal cooling. Traders appear to weigh these dynamics against possible model shifts in the final 48-hour updates, as small changes in cloud timing or wind direction can alter the exact minimum by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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