Latest ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 9°C in London overnight into May 18, driven by clear skies promoting radiational cooling under light variable winds. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the 9°C outcome at 48.5% implied probability, followed by 10°C at 24.0%. Historical May averages for central London show overnight lows of 8–10°C, providing a climatological baseline that current conditions match closely. Any increase in cloud cover or wind speed before dawn could limit cooling and shift the reading toward 10°C, while persistent clear conditions might allow a dip to 8°C. Updated model runs and official observations tonight remain the key near-term catalysts for market adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on May 18?
Lowest temperature in London on May 18?
9°C 52%
8°C 16%
10°C 14%
7°C 6%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
6%
8°C
16%
9°C
52%
10°C
14%
11°C
3%
12°C or higher
1%
9°C 52%
8°C 16%
10°C 14%
7°C 6%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
2°C or below
$163 Vol.
<1%
3°C
$167 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$178 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$354 Vol.
1%
6°C
$191 Vol.
1%
7°C
$185 Vol.
6%
8°C
$266 Vol.
16%
9°C
$91 Vol.
52%
10°C
$57 Vol.
14%
11°C
$61 Vol.
3%
12°C or higher
$229 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 9°C in London overnight into May 18, driven by clear skies promoting radiational cooling under light variable winds. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the 9°C outcome at 48.5% implied probability, followed by 10°C at 24.0%. Historical May averages for central London show overnight lows of 8–10°C, providing a climatological baseline that current conditions match closely. Any increase in cloud cover or wind speed before dawn could limit cooling and shift the reading toward 10°C, while persistent clear conditions might allow a dip to 8°C. Updated model runs and official observations tonight remain the key near-term catalysts for market adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,943End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 9°C in London overnight into May 18, driven by clear skies promoting radiational cooling under light variable winds. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the 9°C outcome at 48.5% implied probability, followed by 10°C at 24.0%. Historical May averages for central London show overnight lows of 8–10°C, providing a climatological baseline that current conditions match closely. Any increase in cloud cover or wind speed before dawn could limit cooling and shift the reading toward 10°C, while persistent clear conditions might allow a dip to 8°C. Updated model runs and official observations tonight remain the key near-term catalysts for market adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,943End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCLatest ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 9°C in London overnight into May 18, driven by clear skies promoting radiational cooling under light variable winds. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the 9°C outcome at 48.5% implied probability, followed by 10°C at 24.0%. Historical May averages for central London show overnight lows of 8–10°C, providing a climatological baseline that current conditions match closely. Any increase in cloud cover or wind speed before dawn could limit cooling and shift the reading toward 10°C, while persistent clear conditions might allow a dip to 8°C. Updated model runs and official observations tonight remain the key near-term catalysts for market adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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