Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a maximum temperature in Wellington on May 19 most likely to fall between 14°C and 15°C, driven by a stable southerly airflow pattern across the Cook Strait that limits daytime heating while sea surface temperatures provide modest moderation. Late-autumn climatology supports this range, with historical May maxima averaging near 14°C and typical day-to-day variability of 1–2°C arising from changes in wind direction and cloud cover. Recent model runs show minimal disagreement on intensification of any northerly flow, keeping probabilities for 16°C or higher low while the tight spread between the two leading outcomes reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range guidance that will be resolved by updated runs ahead of the observation period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 19?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 19?
14°C 44%
15°C 35%
16°C 11%
13°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
10%
14°C
44%
15°C
35%
16°C
11%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
14°C 44%
15°C 35%
16°C 11%
13°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
8°C or below
$407 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$246 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$326 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$78 Vol.
1%
12°C
$142 Vol.
3%
13°C
$455 Vol.
10%
14°C
$373 Vol.
44%
15°C
$293 Vol.
35%
16°C
$193 Vol.
11%
17°C
$395 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$247 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a maximum temperature in Wellington on May 19 most likely to fall between 14°C and 15°C, driven by a stable southerly airflow pattern across the Cook Strait that limits daytime heating while sea surface temperatures provide modest moderation. Late-autumn climatology supports this range, with historical May maxima averaging near 14°C and typical day-to-day variability of 1–2°C arising from changes in wind direction and cloud cover. Recent model runs show minimal disagreement on intensification of any northerly flow, keeping probabilities for 16°C or higher low while the tight spread between the two leading outcomes reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range guidance that will be resolved by updated runs ahead of the observation period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$3,155End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a maximum temperature in Wellington on May 19 most likely to fall between 14°C and 15°C, driven by a stable southerly airflow pattern across the Cook Strait that limits daytime heating while sea surface temperatures provide modest moderation. Late-autumn climatology supports this range, with historical May maxima averaging near 14°C and typical day-to-day variability of 1–2°C arising from changes in wind direction and cloud cover. Recent model runs show minimal disagreement on intensification of any northerly flow, keeping probabilities for 16°C or higher low while the tight spread between the two leading outcomes reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range guidance that will be resolved by updated runs ahead of the observation period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,155End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNCurrent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a maximum temperature in Wellington on May 19 most likely to fall between 14°C and 15°C, driven by a stable southerly airflow pattern across the Cook Strait that limits daytime heating while sea surface temperatures provide modest moderation. Late-autumn climatology supports this range, with historical May maxima averaging near 14°C and typical day-to-day variability of 1–2°C arising from changes in wind direction and cloud cover. Recent model runs show minimal disagreement on intensification of any northerly flow, keeping probabilities for 16°C or higher low while the tight spread between the two leading outcomes reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range guidance that will be resolved by updated runs ahead of the observation period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions