Recent numerical weather prediction runs from MetService and ensemble models have converged on a daily maximum near 14°C for Wellington on May 18, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge combined with light southerly flow that limits daytime warming. This aligns with May climatology, where average highs at Wellington International Airport typically range from 13–16°C amid transitional autumn conditions. Traders have priced 14°C at 57.5% and 15°C at 34.5% because recent observations show consistent fine, settled weather with chilly mornings but modest afternoon peaks, while the small probability mass on 16°C or higher accounts for any unexpected northerly shift before land-based verification tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
14°C 56%
15°C 34%
16°C 5.0%
13°C 4.5%
NEW
$20,654 Vol.
NEW
$20,654 Vol.
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
4%
14°C
56%
15°C
34%
16°C
5%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 56%
15°C 34%
16°C 5.0%
13°C 4.5%
NEW
$20,654 Vol.
NEW
$20,654 Vol.
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
$681 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$485 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$540 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$4,720 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,931 Vol.
2%
13°C
$2,489 Vol.
4%
14°C
$2,469 Vol.
56%
15°C
$1,721 Vol.
34%
16°C
$3,760 Vol.
5%
17°C
$1,028 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$833 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from MetService and ensemble models have converged on a daily maximum near 14°C for Wellington on May 18, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge combined with light southerly flow that limits daytime warming. This aligns with May climatology, where average highs at Wellington International Airport typically range from 13–16°C amid transitional autumn conditions. Traders have priced 14°C at 57.5% and 15°C at 34.5% because recent observations show consistent fine, settled weather with chilly mornings but modest afternoon peaks, while the small probability mass on 16°C or higher accounts for any unexpected northerly shift before land-based verification tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$20,654End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from MetService and ensemble models have converged on a daily maximum near 14°C for Wellington on May 18, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge combined with light southerly flow that limits daytime warming. This aligns with May climatology, where average highs at Wellington International Airport typically range from 13–16°C amid transitional autumn conditions. Traders have priced 14°C at 57.5% and 15°C at 34.5% because recent observations show consistent fine, settled weather with chilly mornings but modest afternoon peaks, while the small probability mass on 16°C or higher accounts for any unexpected northerly shift before land-based verification tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,654End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNRecent numerical weather prediction runs from MetService and ensemble models have converged on a daily maximum near 14°C for Wellington on May 18, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge combined with light southerly flow that limits daytime warming. This aligns with May climatology, where average highs at Wellington International Airport typically range from 13–16°C amid transitional autumn conditions. Traders have priced 14°C at 57.5% and 15°C at 34.5% because recent observations show consistent fine, settled weather with chilly mornings but modest afternoon peaks, while the small probability mass on 16°C or higher accounts for any unexpected northerly shift before land-based verification tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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