National Weather Service ensemble guidance currently points to partly cloudy conditions over Miami on May 19 with daytime highs in the upper 80s, driving the near-even market split between the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F brackets. Minor differences in model timing of afternoon convection could either suppress peak insolation through cloud cover or allow stronger surface heating under clearer breaks, creating the observed uncertainty between those two leading outcomes. Mid-May climatology places the long-term average maximum near 85 °F at Miami International Airport, so any deviation hinges on how sea-breeze convergence and moisture interact with the steering flow. Updated short-range model runs and official forecast discussions expected over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution ahead of the daily high observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on May 19?
Highest temperature in Miami on May 19?
86-87°F 42%
88-89°F 41%
90-91°F 12%
84-85°F 8%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
42%
88-89°F
42%
90-91°F
12%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
1%
96°F or higher
1%
86-87°F 42%
88-89°F 41%
90-91°F 12%
84-85°F 8%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
77°F or below
$309 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$611 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$370 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$150 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$125 Vol.
8%
86-87°F
$366 Vol.
42%
88-89°F
$258 Vol.
42%
90-91°F
$303 Vol.
12%
92-93°F
$336 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$423 Vol.
1%
96°F or higher
$444 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service ensemble guidance currently points to partly cloudy conditions over Miami on May 19 with daytime highs in the upper 80s, driving the near-even market split between the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F brackets. Minor differences in model timing of afternoon convection could either suppress peak insolation through cloud cover or allow stronger surface heating under clearer breaks, creating the observed uncertainty between those two leading outcomes. Mid-May climatology places the long-term average maximum near 85 °F at Miami International Airport, so any deviation hinges on how sea-breeze convergence and moisture interact with the steering flow. Updated short-range model runs and official forecast discussions expected over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution ahead of the daily high observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$3,695End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service ensemble guidance currently points to partly cloudy conditions over Miami on May 19 with daytime highs in the upper 80s, driving the near-even market split between the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F brackets. Minor differences in model timing of afternoon convection could either suppress peak insolation through cloud cover or allow stronger surface heating under clearer breaks, creating the observed uncertainty between those two leading outcomes. Mid-May climatology places the long-term average maximum near 85 °F at Miami International Airport, so any deviation hinges on how sea-breeze convergence and moisture interact with the steering flow. Updated short-range model runs and official forecast discussions expected over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution ahead of the daily high observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,695End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIANational Weather Service ensemble guidance currently points to partly cloudy conditions over Miami on May 19 with daytime highs in the upper 80s, driving the near-even market split between the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F brackets. Minor differences in model timing of afternoon convection could either suppress peak insolation through cloud cover or allow stronger surface heating under clearer breaks, creating the observed uncertainty between those two leading outcomes. Mid-May climatology places the long-term average maximum near 85 °F at Miami International Airport, so any deviation hinges on how sea-breeze convergence and moisture interact with the steering flow. Updated short-range model runs and official forecast discussions expected over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution ahead of the daily high observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions