Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a Miami high temperature on May 18 centered in the mid-to-upper 80s, consistent with late-spring climatology where average daily maxima reach 85°F amid warm, moist subtropical air. The tight contest between the 86–87°F and 88–89°F bins reflects modest uncertainty in afternoon sea-breeze timing and convective cloud cover, which can suppress peak readings by 1–3°F if thunderstorms develop earlier than expected. Recent model runs show limited spread in boundary-layer temperatures and dew points near 75°F, keeping extreme outliers below 5% probability. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will likely narrow the range as land-sea circulation strengthens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on May 18?
Highest temperature in Miami on May 18?
86-87°F 45%
88-89°F 37%
84-85°F 11%
90-91°F 7%
NEW
$15,676 Vol.
NEW
$15,676 Vol.
May 18, 2026
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
11%
86-87°F
45%
88-89°F
37%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
1%
96°F or higher
1%
86-87°F 45%
88-89°F 37%
84-85°F 11%
90-91°F 7%
NEW
$15,676 Vol.
NEW
$15,676 Vol.
May 18, 2026
77°F or below
$773 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$955 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$648 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$1,931 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$1,733 Vol.
11%
86-87°F
$1,757 Vol.
45%
88-89°F
$2,499 Vol.
37%
90-91°F
$1,896 Vol.
7%
92-93°F
$1,327 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$1,114 Vol.
1%
96°F or higher
$1,049 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a Miami high temperature on May 18 centered in the mid-to-upper 80s, consistent with late-spring climatology where average daily maxima reach 85°F amid warm, moist subtropical air. The tight contest between the 86–87°F and 88–89°F bins reflects modest uncertainty in afternoon sea-breeze timing and convective cloud cover, which can suppress peak readings by 1–3°F if thunderstorms develop earlier than expected. Recent model runs show limited spread in boundary-layer temperatures and dew points near 75°F, keeping extreme outliers below 5% probability. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will likely narrow the range as land-sea circulation strengthens.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$15,676End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a Miami high temperature on May 18 centered in the mid-to-upper 80s, consistent with late-spring climatology where average daily maxima reach 85°F amid warm, moist subtropical air. The tight contest between the 86–87°F and 88–89°F bins reflects modest uncertainty in afternoon sea-breeze timing and convective cloud cover, which can suppress peak readings by 1–3°F if thunderstorms develop earlier than expected. Recent model runs show limited spread in boundary-layer temperatures and dew points near 75°F, keeping extreme outliers below 5% probability. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will likely narrow the range as land-sea circulation strengthens.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,676End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIACurrent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a Miami high temperature on May 18 centered in the mid-to-upper 80s, consistent with late-spring climatology where average daily maxima reach 85°F amid warm, moist subtropical air. The tight contest between the 86–87°F and 88–89°F bins reflects modest uncertainty in afternoon sea-breeze timing and convective cloud cover, which can suppress peak readings by 1–3°F if thunderstorms develop earlier than expected. Recent model runs show limited spread in boundary-layer temperatures and dew points near 75°F, keeping extreme outliers below 5% probability. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will likely narrow the range as land-sea circulation strengthens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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