Ensemble forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and global models currently favor a daytime maximum near 30°C in Tel Aviv on May 18, supported by a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean that promotes strong solar heating and minimal cloud cover. This setup has shifted trader consensus toward the 30°C and 31°C brackets, which together command nearly 70% implied probability, while the 32°C-or-higher outcome remains a lower-probability tail risk. Seasonal climatology for mid-May places average highs at 26–28°C, so the current warming trend reflects reduced maritime moderation and subsidence warming aloft. Final model runs and real-time observations from Ben Gurion International Airport before resolution will clarify whether sea-breeze onset or minor convective development trims the peak by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 18?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 18?
30°C 41%
31°C 32.5%
32°C or higher 16.0%
29°C 10%
NEW
$10,797 Vol.
NEW
$10,797 Vol.
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
10%
30°C
41%
31°C
32%
32°C or higher
16%
30°C 41%
31°C 32.5%
32°C or higher 16.0%
29°C 10%
NEW
$10,797 Vol.
NEW
$10,797 Vol.
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
$983 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$580 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$596 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$530 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$557 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,063 Vol.
1%
28°C
$1,049 Vol.
2%
29°C
$1,371 Vol.
10%
30°C
$1,416 Vol.
41%
31°C
$1,961 Vol.
32%
32°C or higher
$752 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and global models currently favor a daytime maximum near 30°C in Tel Aviv on May 18, supported by a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean that promotes strong solar heating and minimal cloud cover. This setup has shifted trader consensus toward the 30°C and 31°C brackets, which together command nearly 70% implied probability, while the 32°C-or-higher outcome remains a lower-probability tail risk. Seasonal climatology for mid-May places average highs at 26–28°C, so the current warming trend reflects reduced maritime moderation and subsidence warming aloft. Final model runs and real-time observations from Ben Gurion International Airport before resolution will clarify whether sea-breeze onset or minor convective development trims the peak by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$10,797End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and global models currently favor a daytime maximum near 30°C in Tel Aviv on May 18, supported by a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean that promotes strong solar heating and minimal cloud cover. This setup has shifted trader consensus toward the 30°C and 31°C brackets, which together command nearly 70% implied probability, while the 32°C-or-higher outcome remains a lower-probability tail risk. Seasonal climatology for mid-May places average highs at 26–28°C, so the current warming trend reflects reduced maritime moderation and subsidence warming aloft. Final model runs and real-time observations from Ben Gurion International Airport before resolution will clarify whether sea-breeze onset or minor convective development trims the peak by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,797End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETEnsemble forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and global models currently favor a daytime maximum near 30°C in Tel Aviv on May 18, supported by a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean that promotes strong solar heating and minimal cloud cover. This setup has shifted trader consensus toward the 30°C and 31°C brackets, which together command nearly 70% implied probability, while the 32°C-or-higher outcome remains a lower-probability tail risk. Seasonal climatology for mid-May places average highs at 26–28°C, so the current warming trend reflects reduced maritime moderation and subsidence warming aloft. Final model runs and real-time observations from Ben Gurion International Airport before resolution will clarify whether sea-breeze onset or minor convective development trims the peak by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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