Recent forecast updates from meteorological models indicate a moderating high-pressure system over central Russia, with projected daily maximums for Moscow on May 19 centering around 27°C amid variable springtime advection patterns. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting historical May variability where temperatures can exceed long-term averages of 18–20°C by several degrees during warm spells. Key variables include afternoon instability from residual thunderstorm activity, which could either enhance or suppress peak readings depending on cloud cover timing, and model consensus on wind directions that favor continental air masses. Updated runs from regional agencies are expected in the next 24–48 hours, potentially shifting implied probabilities if guidance trends warmer or cooler.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 19?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 19?
30°C 29%
29°C 22%
31°C 19%
28°C 16%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
8%
28°C
16%
29°C
22%
30°C
29%
31°C
19%
32°C or higher
13%
30°C 29%
29°C 22%
31°C 19%
28°C 16%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
22°C or below
$30 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$535 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$433 Vol.
1%
26°C
$85 Vol.
2%
27°C
$79 Vol.
8%
28°C
$207 Vol.
16%
29°C
$152 Vol.
22%
30°C
$80 Vol.
29%
31°C
$44 Vol.
19%
32°C or higher
$178 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast updates from meteorological models indicate a moderating high-pressure system over central Russia, with projected daily maximums for Moscow on May 19 centering around 27°C amid variable springtime advection patterns. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting historical May variability where temperatures can exceed long-term averages of 18–20°C by several degrees during warm spells. Key variables include afternoon instability from residual thunderstorm activity, which could either enhance or suppress peak readings depending on cloud cover timing, and model consensus on wind directions that favor continental air masses. Updated runs from regional agencies are expected in the next 24–48 hours, potentially shifting implied probabilities if guidance trends warmer or cooler.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$1,831End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast updates from meteorological models indicate a moderating high-pressure system over central Russia, with projected daily maximums for Moscow on May 19 centering around 27°C amid variable springtime advection patterns. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting historical May variability where temperatures can exceed long-term averages of 18–20°C by several degrees during warm spells. Key variables include afternoon instability from residual thunderstorm activity, which could either enhance or suppress peak readings depending on cloud cover timing, and model consensus on wind directions that favor continental air masses. Updated runs from regional agencies are expected in the next 24–48 hours, potentially shifting implied probabilities if guidance trends warmer or cooler.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,831End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent forecast updates from meteorological models indicate a moderating high-pressure system over central Russia, with projected daily maximums for Moscow on May 19 centering around 27°C amid variable springtime advection patterns. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting historical May variability where temperatures can exceed long-term averages of 18–20°C by several degrees during warm spells. Key variables include afternoon instability from residual thunderstorm activity, which could either enhance or suppress peak readings depending on cloud cover timing, and model consensus on wind directions that favor continental air masses. Updated runs from regional agencies are expected in the next 24–48 hours, potentially shifting implied probabilities if guidance trends warmer or cooler.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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