Recent ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF and GFS place Istanbul’s May 18 maximum near 21–22 °C, producing the tight clustering around those two outcomes. A weak high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean is expected to limit cloud cover while allowing modest southerly flow off the Anatolian plateau, yet a developing sea-breeze circulation from the cooler Black Sea waters could cap afternoon warming by 1–2 °C depending on timing and strength of the onshore gradient. Historical mid-May averages at the Istanbul Airport station sit near 21 °C, so traders are weighing whether the current anomaly will hold or be tempered by increased low-level moisture and reduced insolation. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at the primary meteorological site.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
21°C 30%
22°C 30%
20°C 19%
23°C or higher 16.2%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
4%
20°C
19%
21°C
30%
22°C
30%
23°C or higher
16%
21°C 30%
22°C 30%
20°C 19%
23°C or higher 16.2%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
$437 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$765 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$886 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$786 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,690 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,061 Vol.
2%
19°C
$724 Vol.
4%
20°C
$205 Vol.
19%
21°C
$253 Vol.
30%
22°C
$294 Vol.
30%
23°C or higher
$682 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF and GFS place Istanbul’s May 18 maximum near 21–22 °C, producing the tight clustering around those two outcomes. A weak high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean is expected to limit cloud cover while allowing modest southerly flow off the Anatolian plateau, yet a developing sea-breeze circulation from the cooler Black Sea waters could cap afternoon warming by 1–2 °C depending on timing and strength of the onshore gradient. Historical mid-May averages at the Istanbul Airport station sit near 21 °C, so traders are weighing whether the current anomaly will hold or be tempered by increased low-level moisture and reduced insolation. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at the primary meteorological site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$7,782End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF and GFS place Istanbul’s May 18 maximum near 21–22 °C, producing the tight clustering around those two outcomes. A weak high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean is expected to limit cloud cover while allowing modest southerly flow off the Anatolian plateau, yet a developing sea-breeze circulation from the cooler Black Sea waters could cap afternoon warming by 1–2 °C depending on timing and strength of the onshore gradient. Historical mid-May averages at the Istanbul Airport station sit near 21 °C, so traders are weighing whether the current anomaly will hold or be tempered by increased low-level moisture and reduced insolation. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at the primary meteorological site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,782End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF and GFS place Istanbul’s May 18 maximum near 21–22 °C, producing the tight clustering around those two outcomes. A weak high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean is expected to limit cloud cover while allowing modest southerly flow off the Anatolian plateau, yet a developing sea-breeze circulation from the cooler Black Sea waters could cap afternoon warming by 1–2 °C depending on timing and strength of the onshore gradient. Historical mid-May averages at the Istanbul Airport station sit near 21 °C, so traders are weighing whether the current anomaly will hold or be tempered by increased low-level moisture and reduced insolation. Final resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at the primary meteorological site.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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