Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 20°C or below (30%), 21°C (25.5%), and 22°C (23%) for São Paulo's highest temperature on May 15, driven by persistent cool air advection from a recent cold front that swept through southeast Brazil around May 9, delivering record-low minimums like 6.6°C earlier this month and slightly below-average May temperatures per INMET data. This southerly airflow, combined with partly cloudy skies and light northwest winds forecasted by sources like Meteoblue (24°C high) and AccuWeather (27°C), creates uncertainty in peak afternoon heating, as variable cloud cover and residual moisture suppress solar insolation. Key differentiators include boundary layer stability and urban heat island effects in São Paulo, with INMET updates and hourly observations expected to sharpen resolution tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 15?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 15?
20°C or below 33%
21°C 25%
22°C 20%
23°C 6%
NEW
$10,602 Vol.
NEW
$10,602 Vol.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
33%
21°C
25%
22°C
20%
23°C
6%
24°C
2%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
20°C or below 33%
21°C 25%
22°C 20%
23°C 6%
NEW
$10,602 Vol.
NEW
$10,602 Vol.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
$1,640 Vol.
33%
21°C
$941 Vol.
25%
22°C
$2,053 Vol.
20%
23°C
$585 Vol.
6%
24°C
$798 Vol.
2%
25°C
$1,455 Vol.
3%
26°C
$312 Vol.
1%
27°C
$322 Vol.
1%
28°C
$1,203 Vol.
1%
29°C
$440 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$851 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 20°C or below (30%), 21°C (25.5%), and 22°C (23%) for São Paulo's highest temperature on May 15, driven by persistent cool air advection from a recent cold front that swept through southeast Brazil around May 9, delivering record-low minimums like 6.6°C earlier this month and slightly below-average May temperatures per INMET data. This southerly airflow, combined with partly cloudy skies and light northwest winds forecasted by sources like Meteoblue (24°C high) and AccuWeather (27°C), creates uncertainty in peak afternoon heating, as variable cloud cover and residual moisture suppress solar insolation. Key differentiators include boundary layer stability and urban heat island effects in São Paulo, with INMET updates and hourly observations expected to sharpen resolution tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$10,602End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 20°C or below (30%), 21°C (25.5%), and 22°C (23%) for São Paulo's highest temperature on May 15, driven by persistent cool air advection from a recent cold front that swept through southeast Brazil around May 9, delivering record-low minimums like 6.6°C earlier this month and slightly below-average May temperatures per INMET data. This southerly airflow, combined with partly cloudy skies and light northwest winds forecasted by sources like Meteoblue (24°C high) and AccuWeather (27°C), creates uncertainty in peak afternoon heating, as variable cloud cover and residual moisture suppress solar insolation. Key differentiators include boundary layer stability and urban heat island effects in São Paulo, with INMET updates and hourly observations expected to sharpen resolution tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,602End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 20°C or below (30%), 21°C (25.5%), and 22°C (23%) for São Paulo's highest temperature on May 15, driven by persistent cool air advection from a recent cold front that swept through southeast Brazil around May 9, delivering record-low minimums like 6.6°C earlier this month and slightly below-average May temperatures per INMET data. This southerly airflow, combined with partly cloudy skies and light northwest winds forecasted by sources like Meteoblue (24°C high) and AccuWeather (27°C), creates uncertainty in peak afternoon heating, as variable cloud cover and residual moisture suppress solar insolation. Key differentiators include boundary layer stability and urban heat island effects in São Paulo, with INMET updates and hourly observations expected to sharpen resolution tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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