Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 43.5% implied probability for 26°C as the highest temperature in São Paulo today, reflects the latest forecasts from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) projecting a maximum of 25°C under mostly sunny skies with increasing afternoon clouds, while international models like those aggregated on AccuWeather suggest peaks near 25.5–26°C. This positioning stems from yesterday's observed high of about 24.8°C amid a stable high-pressure ridge promoting clearer conditions and above-normal autumn insolation, moderated by Atlantic sea breezes that typically cap May highs around 23°C historically. Hourly peaks expected between 3–5 p.m. local time introduce uncertainty from potential cloud development or wind shifts; official readings from stations like Guarulhos International Airport will resolve the market later today.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 14?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 14?
26°C 44%
25°C 26%
27°C 13%
24°C 8%
NEW
$16,114 Vol.
NEW
$16,114 Vol.
May 14, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
6%
24°C
8%
25°C
26%
26°C
44%
27°C
13%
28°C
7%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 44%
25°C 26%
27°C 13%
24°C 8%
NEW
$16,114 Vol.
NEW
$16,114 Vol.
May 14, 2026
21°C or below
$1,290 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,014 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,460 Vol.
6%
24°C
$2,315 Vol.
8%
25°C
$1,609 Vol.
26%
26°C
$1,232 Vol.
44%
27°C
$2,441 Vol.
13%
28°C
$1,307 Vol.
7%
29°C
$956 Vol.
1%
30°C
$574 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$932 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 43.5% implied probability for 26°C as the highest temperature in São Paulo today, reflects the latest forecasts from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) projecting a maximum of 25°C under mostly sunny skies with increasing afternoon clouds, while international models like those aggregated on AccuWeather suggest peaks near 25.5–26°C. This positioning stems from yesterday's observed high of about 24.8°C amid a stable high-pressure ridge promoting clearer conditions and above-normal autumn insolation, moderated by Atlantic sea breezes that typically cap May highs around 23°C historically. Hourly peaks expected between 3–5 p.m. local time introduce uncertainty from potential cloud development or wind shifts; official readings from stations like Guarulhos International Airport will resolve the market later today.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$16,114End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 43.5% implied probability for 26°C as the highest temperature in São Paulo today, reflects the latest forecasts from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) projecting a maximum of 25°C under mostly sunny skies with increasing afternoon clouds, while international models like those aggregated on AccuWeather suggest peaks near 25.5–26°C. This positioning stems from yesterday's observed high of about 24.8°C amid a stable high-pressure ridge promoting clearer conditions and above-normal autumn insolation, moderated by Atlantic sea breezes that typically cap May highs around 23°C historically. Hourly peaks expected between 3–5 p.m. local time introduce uncertainty from potential cloud development or wind shifts; official readings from stations like Guarulhos International Airport will resolve the market later today.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$16,114End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 43.5% implied probability for 26°C as the highest temperature in São Paulo today, reflects the latest forecasts from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) projecting a maximum of 25°C under mostly sunny skies with increasing afternoon clouds, while international models like those aggregated on AccuWeather suggest peaks near 25.5–26°C. This positioning stems from yesterday's observed high of about 24.8°C amid a stable high-pressure ridge promoting clearer conditions and above-normal autumn insolation, moderated by Atlantic sea breezes that typically cap May highs around 23°C historically. Hourly peaks expected between 3–5 p.m. local time introduce uncertainty from potential cloud development or wind shifts; official readings from stations like Guarulhos International Airport will resolve the market later today.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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