Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance for a high temperature in New York City around 62-65°F at Central Park, the market's resolution station, amid a slow-moving frontal boundary bringing persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and gusty south-southeast winds of 10-20 mph. This setup caps daytime heating well below the mid-May climatological normal of 71°F, with low-level onshore flow enhancing marine layer effects. Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs show tight clustering in the low-mid 60s but diverge on peak timing—earlier clearing could push toward 66-67°F, while prolonged overcast favors 62°F or below. Hourly observations through afternoon will clarify the peak, as urban heat island influences add minor variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 14?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 14?
64-65°F 33%
62-63°F 24%
66-67°F 20%
60-61°F 15%
NEW
$42,329 Vol.
NEW
$42,329 Vol.
May 14, 2026
57°F or below
1%
58-59°F
3%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
24%
64-65°F
33%
66-67°F
20%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
4%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
<1%
76°F or higher
<1%
64-65°F 33%
62-63°F 24%
66-67°F 20%
60-61°F 15%
NEW
$42,329 Vol.
NEW
$42,329 Vol.
May 14, 2026
57°F or below
$2,656 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$2,453 Vol.
3%
60-61°F
$7,677 Vol.
15%
62-63°F
$5,519 Vol.
24%
64-65°F
$2,940 Vol.
33%
66-67°F
$3,308 Vol.
20%
68-69°F
$4,071 Vol.
14%
70-71°F
$3,598 Vol.
4%
72-73°F
$3,651 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$1,599 Vol.
<1%
76°F or higher
$6,287 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance for a high temperature in New York City around 62-65°F at Central Park, the market's resolution station, amid a slow-moving frontal boundary bringing persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and gusty south-southeast winds of 10-20 mph. This setup caps daytime heating well below the mid-May climatological normal of 71°F, with low-level onshore flow enhancing marine layer effects. Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs show tight clustering in the low-mid 60s but diverge on peak timing—earlier clearing could push toward 66-67°F, while prolonged overcast favors 62°F or below. Hourly observations through afternoon will clarify the peak, as urban heat island influences add minor variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$42,329End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance for a high temperature in New York City around 62-65°F at Central Park, the market's resolution station, amid a slow-moving frontal boundary bringing persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and gusty south-southeast winds of 10-20 mph. This setup caps daytime heating well below the mid-May climatological normal of 71°F, with low-level onshore flow enhancing marine layer effects. Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs show tight clustering in the low-mid 60s but diverge on peak timing—earlier clearing could push toward 66-67°F, while prolonged overcast favors 62°F or below. Hourly observations through afternoon will clarify the peak, as urban heat island influences add minor variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$42,329End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance for a high temperature in New York City around 62-65°F at Central Park, the market's resolution station, amid a slow-moving frontal boundary bringing persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and gusty south-southeast winds of 10-20 mph. This setup caps daytime heating well below the mid-May climatological normal of 71°F, with low-level onshore flow enhancing marine layer effects. Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs show tight clustering in the low-mid 60s but diverge on peak timing—earlier clearing could push toward 66-67°F, while prolonged overcast favors 62°F or below. Hourly observations through afternoon will clarify the peak, as urban heat island influences add minor variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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