Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 68-69°F (42%) or 70-71°F (30%) in Los Angeles on May 15, aligning closely with the climatological normal of 69°F at Los Angeles International Airport and recent National Weather Service guidance. This positioning stems from persistent marine layer stratus clouds, driven by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures around 60°F and steady onshore flow, which cap diurnal heating by delaying sunshine until late afternoon. Overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s over the past week, as observed at LAX, reinforce this mild pattern typical of "May Gray." Latest GFS and ECMWF model runs as of May 13 show limited clearing potential, keeping peaks below 72°F, though faster burn-off could nudge outcomes higher; watch for the NWS afternoon update for refined probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on May 15?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 15?
68-69°F 43%
70-71°F 25%
66-67°F 22%
74°F or higher 8.4%
NEW
$12,715 Vol.
NEW
$12,715 Vol.
May 15, 2026
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
22%
68-69°F
43%
70-71°F
25%
72-73°F
7%
74°F or higher
8%
68-69°F 43%
70-71°F 25%
66-67°F 22%
74°F or higher 8.4%
NEW
$12,715 Vol.
NEW
$12,715 Vol.
May 15, 2026
55°F or below
$1,497 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$1,431 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$1,429 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$4,216 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$583 Vol.
2%
64-65°F
$648 Vol.
2%
66-67°F
$1,435 Vol.
22%
68-69°F
$371 Vol.
43%
70-71°F
$235 Vol.
25%
72-73°F
$74 Vol.
7%
74°F or higher
$820 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 68-69°F (42%) or 70-71°F (30%) in Los Angeles on May 15, aligning closely with the climatological normal of 69°F at Los Angeles International Airport and recent National Weather Service guidance. This positioning stems from persistent marine layer stratus clouds, driven by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures around 60°F and steady onshore flow, which cap diurnal heating by delaying sunshine until late afternoon. Overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s over the past week, as observed at LAX, reinforce this mild pattern typical of "May Gray." Latest GFS and ECMWF model runs as of May 13 show limited clearing potential, keeping peaks below 72°F, though faster burn-off could nudge outcomes higher; watch for the NWS afternoon update for refined probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:43 AM ET
Volume
$12,715End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:43 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 68-69°F (42%) or 70-71°F (30%) in Los Angeles on May 15, aligning closely with the climatological normal of 69°F at Los Angeles International Airport and recent National Weather Service guidance. This positioning stems from persistent marine layer stratus clouds, driven by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures around 60°F and steady onshore flow, which cap diurnal heating by delaying sunshine until late afternoon. Overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s over the past week, as observed at LAX, reinforce this mild pattern typical of "May Gray." Latest GFS and ECMWF model runs as of May 13 show limited clearing potential, keeping peaks below 72°F, though faster burn-off could nudge outcomes higher; watch for the NWS afternoon update for refined probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,715End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:43 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 68-69°F (42%) or 70-71°F (30%) in Los Angeles on May 15, aligning closely with the climatological normal of 69°F at Los Angeles International Airport and recent National Weather Service guidance. This positioning stems from persistent marine layer stratus clouds, driven by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures around 60°F and steady onshore flow, which cap diurnal heating by delaying sunshine until late afternoon. Overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s over the past week, as observed at LAX, reinforce this mild pattern typical of "May Gray." Latest GFS and ECMWF model runs as of May 13 show limited clearing potential, keeping peaks below 72°F, though faster burn-off could nudge outcomes higher; watch for the NWS afternoon update for refined probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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