Current ensemble forecasts from major global and regional models indicate Istanbul’s peak temperature on May 19 will most likely fall between 20 °C and 22 °C, consistent with the market’s near-even pricing on those two outcomes. Mid-May climatology for the city shows average daily highs of 20–22 °C, and the present synoptic pattern features a modest westerly to northwesterly flow that limits strong warm-air advection while allowing some daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. Minor differences among runs center on the precise strength of the marine influence from the Black Sea and any subtle ridging that could nudge readings a degree higher or lower. Official resolution will rely on the highest reading recorded at the primary Istanbul Airport station. Updated model guidance and morning observations over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift trader consensus before the day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 19?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 19?
22°C 30%
21°C 29%
20°C 15%
23°C 9.3%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
8%
20°C
15%
21°C
29%
22°C
30%
23°C
9%
24°C
3%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
22°C 30%
21°C 29%
20°C 15%
23°C 9.3%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
16°C or below
$76 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$243 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$306 Vol.
1%
19°C
$233 Vol.
8%
20°C
$57 Vol.
15%
21°C
$106 Vol.
29%
22°C
$48 Vol.
30%
23°C
$346 Vol.
9%
24°C
$536 Vol.
3%
25°C
$370 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$335 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from major global and regional models indicate Istanbul’s peak temperature on May 19 will most likely fall between 20 °C and 22 °C, consistent with the market’s near-even pricing on those two outcomes. Mid-May climatology for the city shows average daily highs of 20–22 °C, and the present synoptic pattern features a modest westerly to northwesterly flow that limits strong warm-air advection while allowing some daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. Minor differences among runs center on the precise strength of the marine influence from the Black Sea and any subtle ridging that could nudge readings a degree higher or lower. Official resolution will rely on the highest reading recorded at the primary Istanbul Airport station. Updated model guidance and morning observations over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift trader consensus before the day ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$2,650End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from major global and regional models indicate Istanbul’s peak temperature on May 19 will most likely fall between 20 °C and 22 °C, consistent with the market’s near-even pricing on those two outcomes. Mid-May climatology for the city shows average daily highs of 20–22 °C, and the present synoptic pattern features a modest westerly to northwesterly flow that limits strong warm-air advection while allowing some daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. Minor differences among runs center on the precise strength of the marine influence from the Black Sea and any subtle ridging that could nudge readings a degree higher or lower. Official resolution will rely on the highest reading recorded at the primary Istanbul Airport station. Updated model guidance and morning observations over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift trader consensus before the day ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,650End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETCurrent ensemble forecasts from major global and regional models indicate Istanbul’s peak temperature on May 19 will most likely fall between 20 °C and 22 °C, consistent with the market’s near-even pricing on those two outcomes. Mid-May climatology for the city shows average daily highs of 20–22 °C, and the present synoptic pattern features a modest westerly to northwesterly flow that limits strong warm-air advection while allowing some daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. Minor differences among runs center on the precise strength of the marine influence from the Black Sea and any subtle ridging that could nudge readings a degree higher or lower. Official resolution will rely on the highest reading recorded at the primary Istanbul Airport station. Updated model guidance and morning observations over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift trader consensus before the day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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