Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models project a New York City overnight low near 47°F on May 1, driving trader consensus toward 46-49°F outcomes amid a cool Canadian air mass advected by a persistent jet stream trough over the Northeast. The razor-thin split between 46-47°F (33%) and 48-49°F (32%) stems from model discrepancies—GFS ensembles leaning cooler with potential radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds, while ECMWF runs incorporate slight urban heat island moderation and possible high clouds limiting the chill. This setup marks a departure from the early May climatological low of around 51°F at Central Park. Watch for 12Z model updates and NWS evening forecast discussion, as minor shifts in boundary layer mixing could resolve the uncertainty before midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in NYC on May 1?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 1?
46-47°F 34%
48-49°F 27%
50-51°F 9.5%
44-45°F 8.0%
NUEVO
$18,040 Vol.
NUEVO
$18,040 Vol.
1 may 2026
37°F or below
1%
38-39°F
1%
40-41°F
1%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
34%
48-49°F
32%
50-51°F
10%
52-53°F
2%
54-55°F
1%
56°F or higher
1%
46-47°F 34%
48-49°F 27%
50-51°F 9.5%
44-45°F 8.0%
NUEVO
$18,040 Vol.
NUEVO
$18,040 Vol.
1 may 2026
37°F or below
$10,837 Vol.
1%
38-39°F
$1,893 Vol.
1%
40-41°F
$480 Vol.
1%
42-43°F
$634 Vol.
2%
44-45°F
$553 Vol.
8%
46-47°F
$484 Vol.
34%
48-49°F
$542 Vol.
32%
50-51°F
$198 Vol.
10%
52-53°F
$266 Vol.
2%
54-55°F
$569 Vol.
1%
56°F or higher
$1,594 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models project a New York City overnight low near 47°F on May 1, driving trader consensus toward 46-49°F outcomes amid a cool Canadian air mass advected by a persistent jet stream trough over the Northeast. The razor-thin split between 46-47°F (33%) and 48-49°F (32%) stems from model discrepancies—GFS ensembles leaning cooler with potential radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds, while ECMWF runs incorporate slight urban heat island moderation and possible high clouds limiting the chill. This setup marks a departure from the early May climatological low of around 51°F at Central Park. Watch for 12Z model updates and NWS evening forecast discussion, as minor shifts in boundary layer mixing could resolve the uncertainty before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volumen
$18,040Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models project a New York City overnight low near 47°F on May 1, driving trader consensus toward 46-49°F outcomes amid a cool Canadian air mass advected by a persistent jet stream trough over the Northeast. The razor-thin split between 46-47°F (33%) and 48-49°F (32%) stems from model discrepancies—GFS ensembles leaning cooler with potential radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds, while ECMWF runs incorporate slight urban heat island moderation and possible high clouds limiting the chill. This setup marks a departure from the early May climatological low of around 51°F at Central Park. Watch for 12Z model updates and NWS evening forecast discussion, as minor shifts in boundary layer mixing could resolve the uncertainty before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$18,040Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models project a New York City overnight low near 47°F on May 1, driving trader consensus toward 46-49°F outcomes amid a cool Canadian air mass advected by a persistent jet stream trough over the Northeast. The razor-thin split between 46-47°F (33%) and 48-49°F (32%) stems from model discrepancies—GFS ensembles leaning cooler with potential radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds, while ECMWF runs incorporate slight urban heat island moderation and possible high clouds limiting the chill. This setup marks a departure from the early May climatological low of around 51°F at Central Park. Watch for 12Z model updates and NWS evening forecast discussion, as minor shifts in boundary layer mixing could resolve the uncertainty before midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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