Latest National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco International Airport project a high near 65°F on May 2 under mostly cloudy conditions, yet trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly at 62-63°F (32.5%) and 60-61°F (28.5%), reflecting adjustments for downtown microclimates where persistent marine layer stratocumulus—recently rebuilding to 1,000-2,000 feet after April rains—limits solar heating amid west winds of 6-10 mph. Differentiating these outcomes hinges on 2-3°F spreads in GFS and ECMWF ensembles regarding stratus burn-off timing and sea breeze intensification, introducing uncertainty typical of coastal forecasting. Historical May 2 averages near 66°F provide context, with new model runs and NWS updates due within 24 hours ahead of resolution at official stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in San Francisco on May 2?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 2?
62-63°F 32%
60-61°F 25%
58-59°F 18%
64-65°F 9%
NUEVO
$10,911 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,911 Vol.
2 may 2026
49°F or below
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
4%
58-59°F
18%
60-61°F
25%
62-63°F
32%
64-65°F
9%
66-67°F
5%
68°F or higher
4%
62-63°F 32%
60-61°F 25%
58-59°F 18%
64-65°F 9%
NUEVO
$10,911 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,911 Vol.
2 may 2026
49°F or below
$2,172 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$1,396 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$2,071 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$1,215 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$377 Vol.
4%
58-59°F
$587 Vol.
18%
60-61°F
$1,088 Vol.
25%
62-63°F
$867 Vol.
32%
64-65°F
$326 Vol.
9%
66-67°F
$321 Vol.
5%
68°F or higher
$492 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco International Airport project a high near 65°F on May 2 under mostly cloudy conditions, yet trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly at 62-63°F (32.5%) and 60-61°F (28.5%), reflecting adjustments for downtown microclimates where persistent marine layer stratocumulus—recently rebuilding to 1,000-2,000 feet after April rains—limits solar heating amid west winds of 6-10 mph. Differentiating these outcomes hinges on 2-3°F spreads in GFS and ECMWF ensembles regarding stratus burn-off timing and sea breeze intensification, introducing uncertainty typical of coastal forecasting. Historical May 2 averages near 66°F provide context, with new model runs and NWS updates due within 24 hours ahead of resolution at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$10,911Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco International Airport project a high near 65°F on May 2 under mostly cloudy conditions, yet trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly at 62-63°F (32.5%) and 60-61°F (28.5%), reflecting adjustments for downtown microclimates where persistent marine layer stratocumulus—recently rebuilding to 1,000-2,000 feet after April rains—limits solar heating amid west winds of 6-10 mph. Differentiating these outcomes hinges on 2-3°F spreads in GFS and ECMWF ensembles regarding stratus burn-off timing and sea breeze intensification, introducing uncertainty typical of coastal forecasting. Historical May 2 averages near 66°F provide context, with new model runs and NWS updates due within 24 hours ahead of resolution at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$10,911Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco International Airport project a high near 65°F on May 2 under mostly cloudy conditions, yet trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly at 62-63°F (32.5%) and 60-61°F (28.5%), reflecting adjustments for downtown microclimates where persistent marine layer stratocumulus—recently rebuilding to 1,000-2,000 feet after April rains—limits solar heating amid west winds of 6-10 mph. Differentiating these outcomes hinges on 2-3°F spreads in GFS and ECMWF ensembles regarding stratus burn-off timing and sea breeze intensification, introducing uncertainty typical of coastal forecasting. Historical May 2 averages near 66°F provide context, with new model runs and NWS updates due within 24 hours ahead of resolution at official stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes