Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake at nearly even odds (48.0% and 48.5%) for May 4–10, reflecting the U.S. Geological Survey's long-term global average of about 0.85 such events per week under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation, which follows a Poisson distribution with high week-to-week variability. Recent USGS data shows two M6.5+ quakes in April—7.4 near Indonesia on April 1 and 7.4 near Miyako, Japan on April 20—aligning with baseline rates amid moderate seismic activity and no ongoing aftershock sequences or fault-specific unrest likely to persist into early May. Absent short-term probabilistic forecasts from USGS, traders weigh inherent tectonic randomness across plate boundaries, with real-time Global Seismograph Network data determining final resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?
1 57%
2 36%
3 34%
0 31%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 may 2026
0
31%
1
57%
2
36%
3
34%
4
9%
5
1%
>5
1%
1 57%
2 36%
3 34%
0 31%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 may 2026
0
$0 Vol.
31%
1
$0 Vol.
57%
2
$0 Vol.
36%
3
$0 Vol.
34%
4
$20 Vol.
9%
5
$35 Vol.
1%
>5
$49 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake at nearly even odds (48.0% and 48.5%) for May 4–10, reflecting the U.S. Geological Survey's long-term global average of about 0.85 such events per week under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation, which follows a Poisson distribution with high week-to-week variability. Recent USGS data shows two M6.5+ quakes in April—7.4 near Indonesia on April 1 and 7.4 near Miyako, Japan on April 20—aligning with baseline rates amid moderate seismic activity and no ongoing aftershock sequences or fault-specific unrest likely to persist into early May. Absent short-term probabilistic forecasts from USGS, traders weigh inherent tectonic randomness across plate boundaries, with real-time Global Seismograph Network data determining final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 11:27 AM ET
Volumen
$103Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake at nearly even odds (48.0% and 48.5%) for May 4–10, reflecting the U.S. Geological Survey's long-term global average of about 0.85 such events per week under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation, which follows a Poisson distribution with high week-to-week variability. Recent USGS data shows two M6.5+ quakes in April—7.4 near Indonesia on April 1 and 7.4 near Miyako, Japan on April 20—aligning with baseline rates amid moderate seismic activity and no ongoing aftershock sequences or fault-specific unrest likely to persist into early May. Absent short-term probabilistic forecasts from USGS, traders weigh inherent tectonic randomness across plate boundaries, with real-time Global Seismograph Network data determining final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$103Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake at nearly even odds (48.0% and 48.5%) for May 4–10, reflecting the U.S. Geological Survey's long-term global average of about 0.85 such events per week under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation, which follows a Poisson distribution with high week-to-week variability. Recent USGS data shows two M6.5+ quakes in April—7.4 near Indonesia on April 1 and 7.4 near Miyako, Japan on April 20—aligning with baseline rates amid moderate seismic activity and no ongoing aftershock sequences or fault-specific unrest likely to persist into early May. Absent short-term probabilistic forecasts from USGS, traders weigh inherent tectonic randomness across plate boundaries, with real-time Global Seismograph Network data determining final resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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