Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on April 30, 2026, backed by the latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and World Meteorological Centre Beijing, which project a midday peak of 28°C under sunny skies, light southwest winds, and a stable high-pressure ridge. Real-time observations at Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's resolution station—confirm temperatures climbing to 27–28°C by early afternoon, with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS analogs showing minimal convective activity or adiabatic warming to push beyond this threshold before evening cooldown. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen surge in solar insolation or delayed nocturnal cooling, though diurnal patterns and increasing cloudiness post-noon make 29°C unlikely; final official readings expected by midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on April 30?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 30?
28°C 100.0%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$126,091 Vol.
$126,091 Vol.
30 abr 2026
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
28°C 100.0%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$126,091 Vol.
$126,091 Vol.
30 abr 2026
28°C
$12,703 Vol.
100%
29°C
$9,477 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$7,302 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$11,167 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$6,753 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$6,243 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$6,187 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$12,557 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on April 30, 2026, backed by the latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and World Meteorological Centre Beijing, which project a midday peak of 28°C under sunny skies, light southwest winds, and a stable high-pressure ridge. Real-time observations at Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's resolution station—confirm temperatures climbing to 27–28°C by early afternoon, with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS analogs showing minimal convective activity or adiabatic warming to push beyond this threshold before evening cooldown. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen surge in solar insolation or delayed nocturnal cooling, though diurnal patterns and increasing cloudiness post-noon make 29°C unlikely; final official readings expected by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volumen
$126,091Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on April 30, 2026, backed by the latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and World Meteorological Centre Beijing, which project a midday peak of 28°C under sunny skies, light southwest winds, and a stable high-pressure ridge. Real-time observations at Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's resolution station—confirm temperatures climbing to 27–28°C by early afternoon, with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS analogs showing minimal convective activity or adiabatic warming to push beyond this threshold before evening cooldown. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen surge in solar insolation or delayed nocturnal cooling, though diurnal patterns and increasing cloudiness post-noon make 29°C unlikely; final official readings expected by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$126,091Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on April 30, 2026, backed by the latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and World Meteorological Centre Beijing, which project a midday peak of 28°C under sunny skies, light southwest winds, and a stable high-pressure ridge. Real-time observations at Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's resolution station—confirm temperatures climbing to 27–28°C by early afternoon, with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS analogs showing minimal convective activity or adiabatic warming to push beyond this threshold before evening cooldown. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen surge in solar insolation or delayed nocturnal cooling, though diurnal patterns and increasing cloudiness post-noon make 29°C unlikely; final official readings expected by midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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