Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Istanbul on April 30, backed by NOAA METAR observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), where hourly data finalized at a peak of 14°C under persistent overcast skies and northerly winds advecting cool air from the Black Sea region. This reflects a short-term cool anomaly below April's climatological average high of 16°C, extending the chilly pattern seen in prior days (13°C on April 28). Model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS had anticipated mild warming, but actual cloud cover and low solar insolation capped heating. Realistic challenges include rare post-finalization data revisions revealing a higher hourly peak, though improbable as evening cools further. Final NOAA timeseries confirmation expected soon.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 30?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 30?
14°C 100.0%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$98,913 Vol.
$98,913 Vol.
30 abr 2026
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
14°C 100.0%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$98,913 Vol.
$98,913 Vol.
30 abr 2026
14°C
$9,593 Vol.
100%
15°C
$12,816 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$7,730 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$6,218 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$2,922 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$4,362 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$2,434 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Istanbul on April 30, backed by NOAA METAR observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), where hourly data finalized at a peak of 14°C under persistent overcast skies and northerly winds advecting cool air from the Black Sea region. This reflects a short-term cool anomaly below April's climatological average high of 16°C, extending the chilly pattern seen in prior days (13°C on April 28). Model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS had anticipated mild warming, but actual cloud cover and low solar insolation capped heating. Realistic challenges include rare post-finalization data revisions revealing a higher hourly peak, though improbable as evening cools further. Final NOAA timeseries confirmation expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Volumen
$98,913Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Istanbul on April 30, backed by NOAA METAR observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), where hourly data finalized at a peak of 14°C under persistent overcast skies and northerly winds advecting cool air from the Black Sea region. This reflects a short-term cool anomaly below April's climatological average high of 16°C, extending the chilly pattern seen in prior days (13°C on April 28). Model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS had anticipated mild warming, but actual cloud cover and low solar insolation capped heating. Realistic challenges include rare post-finalization data revisions revealing a higher hourly peak, though improbable as evening cools further. Final NOAA timeseries confirmation expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$98,913Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Istanbul on April 30, backed by NOAA METAR observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), where hourly data finalized at a peak of 14°C under persistent overcast skies and northerly winds advecting cool air from the Black Sea region. This reflects a short-term cool anomaly below April's climatological average high of 16°C, extending the chilly pattern seen in prior days (13°C on April 28). Model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS had anticipated mild warming, but actual cloud cover and low solar insolation capped heating. Realistic challenges include rare post-finalization data revisions revealing a higher hourly peak, though improbable as evening cools further. Final NOAA timeseries confirmation expected soon.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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