Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Tel Aviv's May 2 high temperature, with 28–31°C outcomes closely clustered at 19–24% implied probabilities amid a spread in global models like GFS and ECMWF. The Israel Meteorological Service currently projects 26°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and increasing cloudiness, but GFS ensembles suggest potential for 30°C+ if high-pressure subsidence strengthens and delays sea breeze onset, allowing greater solar heating over urban surfaces. Recent April warmth, with highs reaching 29°C, supports upside risk, while marine layer persistence could cap at 28°C. Watch IMS updates and new 12Z model runs for resolution shifts before the event.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 2?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 2?
29°C 24%
28°C 22%
30°C 22%
31°C or higher 20%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
4%
28°C
22%
29°C
24%
30°C
22%
31°C or higher
20%
29°C 24%
28°C 22%
30°C 22%
31°C or higher 20%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
21°C or below
$814 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,324 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$298 Vol.
1%
24°C
$330 Vol.
1%
25°C
$544 Vol.
1%
26°C
$80 Vol.
3%
27°C
$36 Vol.
4%
28°C
$5 Vol.
22%
29°C
$230 Vol.
24%
30°C
$43 Vol.
22%
31°C or higher
$371 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Tel Aviv's May 2 high temperature, with 28–31°C outcomes closely clustered at 19–24% implied probabilities amid a spread in global models like GFS and ECMWF. The Israel Meteorological Service currently projects 26°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and increasing cloudiness, but GFS ensembles suggest potential for 30°C+ if high-pressure subsidence strengthens and delays sea breeze onset, allowing greater solar heating over urban surfaces. Recent April warmth, with highs reaching 29°C, supports upside risk, while marine layer persistence could cap at 28°C. Watch IMS updates and new 12Z model runs for resolution shifts before the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$4,076Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Tel Aviv's May 2 high temperature, with 28–31°C outcomes closely clustered at 19–24% implied probabilities amid a spread in global models like GFS and ECMWF. The Israel Meteorological Service currently projects 26°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and increasing cloudiness, but GFS ensembles suggest potential for 30°C+ if high-pressure subsidence strengthens and delays sea breeze onset, allowing greater solar heating over urban surfaces. Recent April warmth, with highs reaching 29°C, supports upside risk, while marine layer persistence could cap at 28°C. Watch IMS updates and new 12Z model runs for resolution shifts before the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$4,076Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Tel Aviv's May 2 high temperature, with 28–31°C outcomes closely clustered at 19–24% implied probabilities amid a spread in global models like GFS and ECMWF. The Israel Meteorological Service currently projects 26°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and increasing cloudiness, but GFS ensembles suggest potential for 30°C+ if high-pressure subsidence strengthens and delays sea breeze onset, allowing greater solar heating over urban surfaces. Recent April warmth, with highs reaching 29°C, supports upside risk, while marine layer persistence could cap at 28°C. Watch IMS updates and new 12Z model runs for resolution shifts before the event.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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