Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AMEDAS observations confirming a midday peak of 16°C at central Tokyo stations amid persistent cloud cover and light rain. Cool northerly winds and a passing frontal boundary have suppressed daytime heating, with current readings hovering around 15–16°C as sunset approaches at approximately 6:30 PM JST, when diurnal cooling typically sets in. This aligns with updated forecast models from JMA and international sources like AccuWeather projecting a daily high of 61°F (16°C) under overcast conditions. Scenarios challenging this would require improbable sudden clearing and intense solar insolation in the final hours, though historical late-afternoon maxima and current meteorology render higher outcomes negligible; final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 30?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 30?
16°C 100.0%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$128,641 Vol.
$128,641 Vol.
30 abr 2026
16°C
100%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 100.0%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$128,641 Vol.
$128,641 Vol.
30 abr 2026
16°C
$18,096 Vol.
100%
17°C
$16,171 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$15,809 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$10,727 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$8,363 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$11,397 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AMEDAS observations confirming a midday peak of 16°C at central Tokyo stations amid persistent cloud cover and light rain. Cool northerly winds and a passing frontal boundary have suppressed daytime heating, with current readings hovering around 15–16°C as sunset approaches at approximately 6:30 PM JST, when diurnal cooling typically sets in. This aligns with updated forecast models from JMA and international sources like AccuWeather projecting a daily high of 61°F (16°C) under overcast conditions. Scenarios challenging this would require improbable sudden clearing and intense solar insolation in the final hours, though historical late-afternoon maxima and current meteorology render higher outcomes negligible; final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
Volumen
$128,641Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AMEDAS observations confirming a midday peak of 16°C at central Tokyo stations amid persistent cloud cover and light rain. Cool northerly winds and a passing frontal boundary have suppressed daytime heating, with current readings hovering around 15–16°C as sunset approaches at approximately 6:30 PM JST, when diurnal cooling typically sets in. This aligns with updated forecast models from JMA and international sources like AccuWeather projecting a daily high of 61°F (16°C) under overcast conditions. Scenarios challenging this would require improbable sudden clearing and intense solar insolation in the final hours, though historical late-afternoon maxima and current meteorology render higher outcomes negligible; final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$128,641Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AMEDAS observations confirming a midday peak of 16°C at central Tokyo stations amid persistent cloud cover and light rain. Cool northerly winds and a passing frontal boundary have suppressed daytime heating, with current readings hovering around 15–16°C as sunset approaches at approximately 6:30 PM JST, when diurnal cooling typically sets in. This aligns with updated forecast models from JMA and international sources like AccuWeather projecting a daily high of 61°F (16°C) under overcast conditions. Scenarios challenging this would require improbable sudden clearing and intense solar insolation in the final hours, though historical late-afternoon maxima and current meteorology render higher outcomes negligible; final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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