Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 22°C as Madrid's highest temperature today at 63.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting a daytime peak around 22°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula. AEMET's official guidance lists a 21°C maximum with early very cloudy skies clearing southward to high clouds, light southerly winds, and rising temperatures from morning lows near 11°C, reflecting a rebound from yesterday's orange-level storms and heavy showers across central Spain. Model uncertainties persist around cloud evolution and peak afternoon heating at Barajas Airport—the resolution source—potentially tipping outcomes to 21°C if persistent or 23°C with fuller clearing; real-time observations will clarify as the day progresses.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on April 30?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 30?
22°C 66%
21°C 24%
23°C 7%
24°C 1.7%
$107,479 Vol.
$107,479 Vol.
30 abr 2026
20°C
<1%
21°C
24%
22°C
66%
23°C
7%
24°C
2%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 66%
21°C 24%
23°C 7%
24°C 1.7%
$107,479 Vol.
$107,479 Vol.
30 abr 2026
20°C
$14,205 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$9,358 Vol.
24%
22°C
$10,638 Vol.
66%
23°C
$8,403 Vol.
7%
24°C
$14,620 Vol.
2%
25°C
$10,235 Vol.
1%
26°C
$9,018 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$8,759 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 22°C as Madrid's highest temperature today at 63.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting a daytime peak around 22°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula. AEMET's official guidance lists a 21°C maximum with early very cloudy skies clearing southward to high clouds, light southerly winds, and rising temperatures from morning lows near 11°C, reflecting a rebound from yesterday's orange-level storms and heavy showers across central Spain. Model uncertainties persist around cloud evolution and peak afternoon heating at Barajas Airport—the resolution source—potentially tipping outcomes to 21°C if persistent or 23°C with fuller clearing; real-time observations will clarify as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$107,479Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 2:38 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Ventana de disputas
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 22°C as Madrid's highest temperature today at 63.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting a daytime peak around 22°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula. AEMET's official guidance lists a 21°C maximum with early very cloudy skies clearing southward to high clouds, light southerly winds, and rising temperatures from morning lows near 11°C, reflecting a rebound from yesterday's orange-level storms and heavy showers across central Spain. Model uncertainties persist around cloud evolution and peak afternoon heating at Barajas Airport—the resolution source—potentially tipping outcomes to 21°C if persistent or 23°C with fuller clearing; real-time observations will clarify as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$107,479Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 2:38 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Ventana de disputas
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 22°C as Madrid's highest temperature today at 63.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting a daytime peak around 22°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula. AEMET's official guidance lists a 21°C maximum with early very cloudy skies clearing southward to high clouds, light southerly winds, and rising temperatures from morning lows near 11°C, reflecting a rebound from yesterday's orange-level storms and heavy showers across central Spain. Model uncertainties persist around cloud evolution and peak afternoon heating at Barajas Airport—the resolution source—potentially tipping outcomes to 21°C if persistent or 23°C with fuller clearing; real-time observations will clarify as the day progresses.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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