Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on April 30 (99.6% implied probability), driven by the latest forecasts from IMGW and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a daytime peak amid cool northerly airflow and partial cloud cover limiting solar insolation. Current observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport—the market's resolution station—show morning temperatures around 4–10°C with light showers tapering off, consistent with northerly winds at 5–10 mph holding highs near 12°C under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with recent cool snaps in central Europe, where average April highs hover around 12–13°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing for enhanced heating or a sudden wind shift to warmer southerlies, though model ensembles show low probability; monitor hourly METAR updates through late afternoon for confirmation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 30?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 30?
12°C 99.6%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$111,432 Vol.
$111,432 Vol.
30 abr 2026
11°C
<1%
12°C
100%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 99.6%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$111,432 Vol.
$111,432 Vol.
30 abr 2026
11°C
$26,458 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$18,253 Vol.
100%
13°C
$13,906 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$13,553 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$7,054 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$7,466 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$5,733 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on April 30 (99.6% implied probability), driven by the latest forecasts from IMGW and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a daytime peak amid cool northerly airflow and partial cloud cover limiting solar insolation. Current observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport—the market's resolution station—show morning temperatures around 4–10°C with light showers tapering off, consistent with northerly winds at 5–10 mph holding highs near 12°C under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with recent cool snaps in central Europe, where average April highs hover around 12–13°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing for enhanced heating or a sudden wind shift to warmer southerlies, though model ensembles show low probability; monitor hourly METAR updates through late afternoon for confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
Volumen
$111,432Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 2:26 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Ventana de disputas
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on April 30 (99.6% implied probability), driven by the latest forecasts from IMGW and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a daytime peak amid cool northerly airflow and partial cloud cover limiting solar insolation. Current observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport—the market's resolution station—show morning temperatures around 4–10°C with light showers tapering off, consistent with northerly winds at 5–10 mph holding highs near 12°C under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with recent cool snaps in central Europe, where average April highs hover around 12–13°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing for enhanced heating or a sudden wind shift to warmer southerlies, though model ensembles show low probability; monitor hourly METAR updates through late afternoon for confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$111,432Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 2:26 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Ventana de disputas
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on April 30 (99.6% implied probability), driven by the latest forecasts from IMGW and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a daytime peak amid cool northerly airflow and partial cloud cover limiting solar insolation. Current observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport—the market's resolution station—show morning temperatures around 4–10°C with light showers tapering off, consistent with northerly winds at 5–10 mph holding highs near 12°C under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with recent cool snaps in central Europe, where average April highs hover around 12–13°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing for enhanced heating or a sudden wind shift to warmer southerlies, though model ensembles show low probability; monitor hourly METAR updates through late afternoon for confirmation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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